Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:39:05 -0500

ABPW10 PGTW 122230
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/122230Z-132230ZSEP2010//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 134.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEPENING AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS, AT THE
MOMENT, DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM AND HAS NEUTRAL EFFECT ON THE
OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER
MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EAST OF A RIDGE AXIS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SUPPORTED BY
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THOSE FROM PALAU, YAP AND FROM
A SHIP 60 NM TO THE EAST. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS,
GFS, AND ECMWF FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP
FROM THIS AREA AFTER TAU 72. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IAT 1007 MB. DUE TO THE
ILL-DEFINED LLCC, STRONG VWS AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE
CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//

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