From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 13 06:43:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8CMhcVe020405 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 06:43:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CCrBrK009615; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3353830 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:13 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CMfDBr014838 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8CMf6lC005582 for ; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id B9006405001F; Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009120082 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100912224106.B9006405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2010 17:41:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 122230 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/122230Z-130600ZSEP2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.1N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM NORTH OF PALAU. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEPENING AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SAME ANIMATION SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO THE NORTH THAT IS, AT THE MOMENT, DETACHED FROM THE SYSTEM AND HAS NEUTRAL EFFECT ON THE OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER MODERATE NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) EAST OF A RIDGE AXIS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS AND SUPPORTED BY NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THOSE FROM PALAU, YAP AND FROM A SHIP 60 NM TO THE EAST. GLOBAL NUMERIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFS, AND ECMWF FORECAST A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP FROM THIS AREA AFTER TAU 72. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IAT 1007 MB. DUE TO THE ILL-DEFINED LLCC, STRONG VWS AND THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.// 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED POOR AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1). +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.