Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:44 -0500

275 
FXPQ60 PGUM 130621
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
421 PM CHST MON SEP 13 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE
MARIANAS AS DEEP CONVECTION JUST EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA NEARS THE
ISLANDS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW-SE OVER THE MARIANAS
THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO AN UPPER LOW WEST OF WAKE IS PROVIDING
AMPLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
EAST. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CLOUD
TOPS ARE WARMING WHICH LESSENS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE MARIANAS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF YAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT
DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. DECIDED NOT TO
INCREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR THE CONVECTION TO THE
EAST BASED ON WARMING CLOUD TOPS...BUT DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR WATERS WEST OF GUAM. GFS SHOWS A
COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT
WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT
DURING THEIR PASSAGE. WINDS SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TROUGH EAST OF MAJURO IS SPARKING SHOWERS BETWEEN 174E AND THE
DATE LINE...AND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO TUE-WED NITE...AND TO KOSRAE THU
THROUGH SAT. POHNPEI IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE TROUGH JUST WEST
OF THERE IS MOVING AWAY FROM POHNPEI...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND
THE TROUGH EAST OF POHNPEI AND NORTH OF KOSRAE. GFS KEEPS THESE
SHOWERS EAST/SOUTH OF POHNPEI...BUT NOT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST IN A LIGHT WIND SITUATION. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS ISOLATED
FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR POHNPEI WEATHER CLOSELY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LARGE TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION REMAIN JUST WEST OF PALAU...AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THROUGH TUE NITE. AFTER
THAT...QUICK DRYING WILL LEAD TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED THE REST
OF THE WEEK. YAP AND CHUUK LOOK QUIET THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE

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