From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 13 14:22:15 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8D6MEPk014209 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 14:22:15 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8D5N2Jk009615; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3358424 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:51 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8D6LpEA020579 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:51 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8D6Li1r019243 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9D13D405001E; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:44 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009120115 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100913062144.9D13D405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 01:21:44 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 275 FXPQ60 PGUM 130621 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 421 PM CHST MON SEP 13 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS DEEP CONVECTION JUST EAST OF GUAM AND ROTA NEARS THE ISLANDS. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING NW-SE OVER THE MARIANAS THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO AN UPPER LOW WEST OF WAKE IS PROVIDING AMPLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MOST OF THE CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING WHICH LESSENS THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. && .DISCUSSION... WEAK SURFACE RIDGING HAS SETTLED IN OVER THE MARIANAS DUE TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF YAP. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SOMEWHAT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. DECIDED NOT TO INCREASE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TONIGHT FOR THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST BASED ON WARMING CLOUD TOPS...BUT DID ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FOR WATERS WEST OF GUAM. GFS SHOWS A COUPLE OF SURFACE TROUGHS CROSSING THE MARIANAS DURING THE NEXT WEEK...BUT FOR NOW...SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT DURING THEIR PASSAGE. WINDS SPEEDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE THROUGH THE WEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TROUGH EAST OF MAJURO IS SPARKING SHOWERS BETWEEN 174E AND THE DATE LINE...AND THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO TUE-WED NITE...AND TO KOSRAE THU THROUGH SAT. POHNPEI IS MORE UNCERTAIN...AS THE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THERE IS MOVING AWAY FROM POHNPEI...BUT SHOWERS REMAIN BEHIND THE TROUGH EAST OF POHNPEI AND NORTH OF KOSRAE. GFS KEEPS THESE SHOWERS EAST/SOUTH OF POHNPEI...BUT NOT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN A LIGHT WIND SITUATION. HAVE KEPT SHOWERS ISOLATED FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR POHNPEI WEATHER CLOSELY. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LARGE TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION REMAIN JUST WEST OF PALAU...AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS THERE THROUGH TUE NITE. AFTER THAT...QUICK DRYING WILL LEAD TO NO MORE THAN ISOLATED THE REST OF THE WEEK. YAP AND CHUUK LOOK QUIET THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.