From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 13 22:31:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8DEViAW014875 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 22:31:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DA0QhL003275; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3361718 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:23 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DEVNd9023890 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DEVFKa022662 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id F19FA405001F; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:14 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=4 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009130067 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100913143114.F19FA405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 09:31:14 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Western And To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list ABPW10 PGTW 131430 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND /SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/131430Z-140600ZSEP2010// RMKS/ 1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 134.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.7N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH OF KOROR. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 122033Z SSMIS IMAGE DEPICT A WEAKLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DISORGANIZED AND ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SYNOPTIC SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KOROR AND YAP AS WELL AS THREE ADDITIONAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT A BROAD LLCC WITH 10-15 KNOT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG 7-8N LATITUDE AND 10-15 KNOT NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK. SLP VALUES RANGE FROM 1008-1010 MB NEAR THE CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE LLCC ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT CELL LOCATED NEAR 12N 134E. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED ON THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND POORLY-ORGANIZED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS POOR. (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.0N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN IMPROVING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 131136Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED LLCC WITH FORMATIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE LLCC WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 131134Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS 15-20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE BUILDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR. (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS. 2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED FAIR AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(2).// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.