From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 14 05:26:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8DLQRwn008558 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 05:26:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DF11aY028286; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3369579 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:10 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DLQAQF014308 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DLQ3vg015394 for ; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 99338405001E; Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 5 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=5 spamscore=5 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009130131 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100913212603.99338405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 633 FXPQ60 PGUM 132125 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 725 AM CHST TUE SEP 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND NORTH OF PALAU IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 10N AND 21N FROM 130E TO 139E. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF WAKE ISLAND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16N AND 23N FROM 156E TO 172E. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4N AND 11N FROM 145E TO 180. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS KEEP THE MARIANAS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. SINCE THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ HAS BEEN THE THEME OF THIS WET SEASON...EXPECT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF WAKE WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER HERE. DID NOT PUT IT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET AS TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. ALSO...A GOOD PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY COULD SLIDE TO THE NORTH. GRIDS WERE IN FINE SHAPE SO NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY. JTWC INVEST AREA 94W...NOW A FAIR ON THE ABPW... IS FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND WILL SOON EXIT MICRONESIA ALTOGETHER. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE ENOUGH TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS MAJURO FAIRLY WET THIS WEEK...SLIDING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST FORECAST...THIS IS NOT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OR SIMPLY FALL APART. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A LARGE TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST AREA 93...REMAINS NORTHWEST OF PALAU. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE CIRCULATION WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR PALAU TODAY. GFS QUICKLY BRINGS AN END TO SHOWERS AS THE CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. YAP AND PALAU WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEEP CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER CHUUK THIS MORNING. CHUUK SITS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BELT OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS TOWARDS THE DATELINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS MOISTURE PROPAGATES WESTWARD OUT OF THE MARSHALLS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.