Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 13 Sep 2010 16:26:03 -0500

633 
FXPQ60 PGUM 132125
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
725 AM CHST TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS. A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND NORTH OF
PALAU IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 10N AND 21N FROM 130E
TO 139E. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF WAKE ISLAND IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 16N AND 23N
FROM 156E TO 172E. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 4N AND 11N FROM 145E TO
180.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS KEEP THE MARIANAS FAIRLY DRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BETWEEN TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS. SINCE THE TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH /TUTT/ HAS BEEN THE THEME OF THIS WET
SEASON...EXPECT THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WEST OF WAKE WILL WORK
ITS WAY OVER HERE. DID NOT PUT IT IN THE FORECAST JUST YET AS
TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. ALSO...A GOOD PORTION OF THE ACTIVITY
COULD SLIDE TO THE NORTH. GRIDS WERE IN FINE SHAPE SO NO CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY. JTWC INVEST AREA 94W...NOW A FAIR ON THE ABPW...
IS FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS AND WILL SOON EXIT MICRONESIA
ALTOGETHER.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A BROAD AREA OF TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ENCOMPASSES THE REGION. LIGHT 
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS ARE ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. GFS KEEPS MAJURO 
FAIRLY WET THIS WEEK...SLIDING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE JUST NORTH OF 
KOSRAE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST 
FORECAST...THIS IS NOT A HIGH-CONFIDENCE FORECAST AS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP OR SIMPLY FALL APART.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE TROUGH AND WEAK CIRCULATION...JTWC INVEST AREA 93...REMAINS 
NORTHWEST OF PALAU. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE INTO THE CIRCULATION WILL 
PROVIDE SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR PALAU TODAY. GFS QUICKLY BRINGS AN END 
TO SHOWERS AS THE CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHWESTWARD. YAP AND PALAU 
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. DEEP 
CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO PASS OVER CHUUK THIS MORNING. CHUUK SITS 
NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE BELT OF CONVECTION THAT EXTENDS 
TOWARDS THE DATELINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH 
BY TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AS MOISTURE 
PROPAGATES WESTWARD OUT OF THE MARSHALLS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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