Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:08:59 -0500

809 
FXPQ60 PGUM 140608
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
408 PM CHST TUE SEP 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST
WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST SOUTH
OF GUAM WATERS. A WEAK CIRCULATION...INVEST AREA 94W...IS FOUND
FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS CENTERED NEAR 18N131E WHILE AN
UPPER- LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF WAKE
ISLAND AT 19N158E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN A DRY PATTERN AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND WILL
KEEP WINDS LIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT SHOWS VERY DRY MID-LEVELS SO
NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS PROG A
SECOND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY-
MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS STRONGLY DISAGREE AS TO HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT FOR THE EVENT SO HAVE LEFT SHOWERS
ISOLATED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST ACROSS POHNPEI TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND AT
MAJURO TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF KOSRAE TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER KOSRAE WED
THROUGH FRI.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST AREA 94W AND THE COLLAPSE OF
93W...WEATHER AT PALAU IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING. NEXT
FEW DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DRY AS WELL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
YAP SHOULD ALSO SEE QUIET WEATHER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS. CHUUK WILL BE DRY THROUGH WED...BUT
GFS STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST WED NIGHT
AND THURS...SO LEFT THAT IN FROM PREV FORECAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

W. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE

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