From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 14 14:09:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8E69O5M026080 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 14:09:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DNuKmf026844; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:09:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3377559 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:09:06 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8E696Lk028552 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:09:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8E68xrn029029 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:09:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 73BB6405001E; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:08:59 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009130198 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100914060859.73BB6405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:08:59 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 809 FXPQ60 PGUM 140608 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 408 PM CHST TUE SEP 14 2010 .SYNOPSIS... SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE EAST WHILE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE JUST SOUTH OF GUAM WATERS. A WEAK CIRCULATION...INVEST AREA 94W...IS FOUND FAR TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS CENTERED NEAR 18N131E WHILE AN UPPER- LEVEL LOW IS OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF WAKE ISLAND AT 19N158E. && .DISCUSSION... THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN A DRY PATTERN AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY AND WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. GFS TIME-HEIGHT SHOWS VERY DRY MID-LEVELS SO NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS PROG A SECOND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AROUND SUNDAY- MONDAY...BUT THE MODELS STRONGLY DISAGREE AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO EXPECT FOR THE EVENT SO HAVE LEFT SHOWERS ISOLATED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A PERSISTENT BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN MICRONESIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS POHNPEI TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND AT MAJURO TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF KOSRAE TONIGHT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OVER KOSRAE WED THROUGH FRI. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... WITH THE CONSOLIDATION OF INVEST AREA 94W AND THE COLLAPSE OF 93W...WEATHER AT PALAU IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY THIS MORNING. NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK FAIRLY DRY AS WELL...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. YAP SHOULD ALSO SEE QUIET WEATHER IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS. CHUUK WILL BE DRY THROUGH WED...BUT GFS STILL SHOWS SOME SHOWERS WORKING IN FROM THE EAST WED NIGHT AND THURS...SO LEFT THAT IN FROM PREV FORECAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ W. AYDLETT/MIDDLEBROOKE +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.