From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 14 14:37:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8E6bW6b027355 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 14:37:33 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DNuKn9026844; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3377672 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:15 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8E6bEEi029913 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8E6b7Ar017513 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D3EFC405001E; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=2 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009130203 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100914063707.D3EFC405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 140630 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 130.8E TO 20.4N 125.8E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 140530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 132313Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A OOO5Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 150630Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.