Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 01:37:07 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 140630
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2N 130.8E TO 20.4N 125.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 140530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.3N 130.6E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.7N
132.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 130.6E, APPROXIMATELY 500 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 132313Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. A OOO5Z
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 20 KNOT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE SYSTEM AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
WEST OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1005 MB. DUE TO INCREASED CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND AN
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150630Z.//

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