From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 15 05:07:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8EL7iZX004293 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 05:07:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8DExwYJ028070; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3390781 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:15 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8EL7EDL017434 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8EL77hE002474 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A4314108B0001; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009140115 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100914210707.A4314108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 16:07:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140621Z SEP 10// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 20.1N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 20.5N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 20.8N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 21.1N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 21.5N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 22.6N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 24.7N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 128.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A RECENT 141255Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS THE TIGHT LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS (MAXIMUM OF 30 KNOTS) ON THE SOUTHEASTERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY, WHICH IS ALSO ALLOWING FOR INCREASED CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE WEST AND NORTH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 12W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. TD 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AS AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TD 12W SHOULD THEN TAKE A SHARP TURN NORTHEASTWARD, SOUTH OF OKINAWA AROUND TAU 72 AND BEGIN TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING RIDGE EXTENSION THAT BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH. BECAUSE OF THE LIMITED OUTFLOW, TD 12W IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY IN THE FIRST 36 HOURS. AS TD 12W CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD, POLEWARD OUTFLOW SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG WITH THE TUTT CELL TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASED INTENSIFICATION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS WHICH SHOW SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THIS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOLLOWS THE NOGAPS AND GFS MODELS, WHICH TURN THE SYSTEM NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO SUGGESTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BUILD IN AND CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO TURN WESTWARD IN THE LATER TAUS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 140630Z SEP 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 140630) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.