From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 15 06:17:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8EMHQhI006807 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 06:17:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8EAY4F4010819; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3391954 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:09 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8EMH8kv025278 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8EMH1we011017 for ; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 67105405001E; Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:01 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009140132 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100914221701.67105405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:01 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 797 FXPQ60 PGUM 142216 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 816 AM CHST WED SEP 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 17N AND 24N FROM 150E TO 170E. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT BROAD PORTIONS OF MICRONESIA WITHIN 120 MILES OF A LINE FROM 3N 130E TO 8N 150E TO 8N 163E TO 11N 178E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 18N AND 22N FROM 130E TO 135E. && .DISCUSSION... SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN MADE A CHANGE IN THE GRIDS NECESSARY TO WORSEN THEIR WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM TO BE DISSOLVING AS THEY MOVE IN THOUGH. OTHERWISE INHERITED PACKAGE WAS GOOD WITH FEW CHANGES NECESSARY. THESE SHOWERS /OR LACK THEREOF/ ARE THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR THE MARIANAS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION. DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A WEAK CIRCULATION NORTH OF MAJURO...NEAR 12N174E...JTWC INVEST 96W. THIS WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MAJURO. MAJURO WILL CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY. POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BOTH REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AS A LULL IN ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS APPROACH. GFS GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTERLY TRADES FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSENSUS IS LOST BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECASTED TO RETURN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE WORKS FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PROGRESSES WESTWARD. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CHUUK WILL POSE THE BEST SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR RAIN AT KOROR. YAP IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THESE SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY FROM A WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF GUAM. REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.