Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 14 Sep 2010 17:17:01 -0500

797 
FXPQ60 PGUM 142216
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
816 AM CHST WED SEP 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST NORTHEAST OF TINIAN AND SAIPAN
WATERS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN
17N AND 24N FROM 150E TO 170E. A TRADE-WIND TROUGH IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT BROAD PORTIONS OF MICRONESIA WITHIN
120 MILES OF A LINE FROM 3N 130E TO 8N 150E TO 8N 163E TO 11N
178E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN
THE FAR WEST BETWEEN 18N AND 22N FROM 130E TO 135E.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD TINIAN AND SAIPAN MADE A CHANGE IN
THE GRIDS NECESSARY TO WORSEN THEIR WEATHER TODAY. SHOWERS SEEM TO
BE DISSOLVING AS THEY MOVE IN THOUGH. OTHERWISE INHERITED PACKAGE
WAS GOOD WITH FEW CHANGES NECESSARY. THESE SHOWERS /OR LACK
THEREOF/ ARE THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY FOR THE MARIANAS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EXTENSIVE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS 
THE REGION. DEEP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A 
WEAK CIRCULATION NORTH OF MAJURO...NEAR 12N174E...JTWC INVEST 96W. 
THIS WEATHER WILL REMAIN NORTH OF MAJURO. MAJURO WILL CLEAR OUT BY 
THURSDAY. POHNPEI AND KOSRAE BOTH REMAIN UNDER THE GUN AS A LULL IN 
ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO COME TO AN END AS SHOWERS APPROACH. GFS 
GRADUALLY BUILDS EASTERLY TRADES FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN CONSENSUS IS LOST BY SUNDAY AS SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW IS FORECASTED TO RETURN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE WORKS FOR WESTERN 
MICRONESIA AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR CHUUK 
LATER TODAY INTO TOMORROW AS MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PROGRESSES 
WESTWARD. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM CHUUK WILL 
POSE THE BEST SHORT-TERM THREAT FOR RAIN AT KOROR. YAP IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THESE SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE 
TODAY FROM A WAVE OF SHOWERS THAT IS MOVING SOUTHWEST OUT OF GUAM. 
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRIER.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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