Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:23 -0500

894 
FXPQ60 PGUM 150823
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
623 PM CHST WED SEP 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY
FROM GUAM AND STRATIFYING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED LOWER CLOUDS MOVING
NORTHWESTWARD AND UPPER AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AND CLOUD DEBRIS MOVING
SOUTHWARD INDICATING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA OF THE
MARIANAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING TO THE WEST. AN UPPER
LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...LIGHT SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
WINDS...THE SURFACE TROUGH...DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT INDICATED ON THE
TIME HEIGHT AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BRING SIMILAR WEATHER
TO TODAY ON THURSDAY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROBABLY CAUSE ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF GUAM. THE
MARIANAS FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED ON 4 AM FORECAST. THE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS THROUGH THE
MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND. NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES.
RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. 

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRIED TO KEEP THE SAME THEME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR 
MAJURO...KOSRAE...AND POHNPEI. WITH THE ITCZ RELATIVELY ACTIVE IT IS 
HARD TO PICK THE WINDOWS OF LESS-THAN-SCATTERED CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH 
MOST OF THE WEATHER DOES COME IN CLUSTERS LASTING 24 TO 36 HOURS...
WITH BRAKES IN-BETWEEN...VERSUS CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. MODELS SUCH AS 
GFS40...ECMWF...UKMET... AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VARIATIONS BETWEEN EACH 
OTHER AND RUN TO RUN. TODAY KOSRAE AND MAJURO APPEARED TO BE IN A 
SLIGHT BREAK...HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NEAR-TERM NWPS 
SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR 
POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WITH ANOTHER SHORT BREAK FOR MAJURO DURING THE 
DAY TOMORROW. IN ANY CASE NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS INDICATED SOUTH 
OF 10N DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE WORKS FOR WESTERN 
MICRONESIA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A 
SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS HEADING FOR CHUUK TONIGHT...
AND THE NWPS INDICATE THAT THESE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
TOMORROW NIGHT. KOROR AND YAP LAY UNDER WEAK TROUGHING CONDITIONS
WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINING FURTHER TO THE
NORTH. SHOWERS...HOWEVER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT UNDER THESE
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LATEST VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF YAP THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/EDSON

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