From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 15 16:24:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8F8OAdA018742 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:24:11 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F50k9f027966; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3399520 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:30 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F8NUix014465 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:30 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F8NN9o005114 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:29 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 6450D405001E; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:23 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009150007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100915082323.6450D405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:23:23 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 894 FXPQ60 PGUM 150823 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 623 PM CHST WED SEP 15 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD AWAY FROM GUAM AND STRATIFYING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED LOWER CLOUDS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND UPPER AND MIDDLE CLOUDS AND CLOUD DEBRIS MOVING SOUTHWARD INDICATING DIVERGENCE ALOFT. && .DISCUSSION... MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE AREA OF THE MARIANAS THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE PASSING TO THE WEST. AN UPPER LOW AND UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...LIGHT SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH WINDS...THE SURFACE TROUGH...DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT INDICATED ON THE TIME HEIGHT AND UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SHOULD BRING SIMILAR WEATHER TO TODAY ON THURSDAY. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE ISLAND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF GUAM. THE MARIANAS FORECAST MAY NEED TO BE AMENDED ON 4 AM FORECAST. THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS THROUGH THE MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND. NEED TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS MATERIALIZES. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE CONTINUED PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TRIED TO KEEP THE SAME THEME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAJURO...KOSRAE...AND POHNPEI. WITH THE ITCZ RELATIVELY ACTIVE IT IS HARD TO PICK THE WINDOWS OF LESS-THAN-SCATTERED CONDITIONS ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE WEATHER DOES COME IN CLUSTERS LASTING 24 TO 36 HOURS... WITH BRAKES IN-BETWEEN...VERSUS CONTINUOUS ACTIVITY. MODELS SUCH AS GFS40...ECMWF...UKMET... AND NOGAPS ALL SHOW VARIATIONS BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND RUN TO RUN. TODAY KOSRAE AND MAJURO APPEARED TO BE IN A SLIGHT BREAK...HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE NEAR-TERM NWPS SHOW THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE WITH ANOTHER SHORT BREAK FOR MAJURO DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. IN ANY CASE NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE IS INDICATED SOUTH OF 10N DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... AGAIN...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKERS IN THE WORKS FOR WESTERN MICRONESIA AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS HEADING FOR CHUUK TONIGHT... AND THE NWPS INDICATE THAT THESE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. KOROR AND YAP LAY UNDER WEAK TROUGHING CONDITIONS WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE REMAINING FURTHER TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS...HOWEVER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION...LATEST VISUAL IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION JUST EAST OF YAP THAT SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.