From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 15 16:25:37 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8F8PalP018793 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:25:37 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F50k9l027966; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3399539 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:16 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F8PCXp014554 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8F8P57L019412 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id CF0EB405001F; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009150007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100915082505.CF0EB405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 12w (twelve) Warning Nr 003 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 150900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 127.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 127.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 21.4N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.9N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.5N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 23.3N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 24.8N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 26.6N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 27.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 127.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 150456 AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK O THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A 150128Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF TD 12W CONTINUES TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW STILL REMAINS MODERATE AND OVERALL TD 12W IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAPAN. BY TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK NORTHWARD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.