Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Depression 12w (twelve) Warning Nr 003

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 03:25:05 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   150600Z --- NEAR 20.7N 127.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 127.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 21.4N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 21.9N 127.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 22.5N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 23.3N 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 24.8N 126.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 26.6N 124.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 27.9N 122.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 127.8E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 12W (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
340 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 150456 AMSRE 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW TIGHTLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTING ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK O THE SYSTEM. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, AS WELL AS A
150128Z ASCAT PASS INDICATING 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS WITHIN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF TD 12W CONTINUES TO HINDER POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
STILL REMAINS MODERATE AND OVERALL TD 12W IS EXPERIENCING ENHANCED
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SYSTEM CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED
SOUTH OF JAPAN. BY TAU 24, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO SLOW AND TRACK
NORTHWARD. TD 12W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO
THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 TD 12W IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY; HOWEVER THE MODELS ARE DEPICTING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z,
152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//

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