From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 16 05:09:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8FL9U2v032596 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 05:09:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8FKbVrd000579; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3412044 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:13 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8FL9CKq007849 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8FL95V7001620 for ; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D1C07405001E; Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=36 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009150114 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100915210905.D1C07405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 005 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 152100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 127.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 127.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 21.6N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.2N 127.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.8N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.2N 126.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.7N 124.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 24.0N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 25.5N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE, YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF T3.0. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE ABOVE FIXES IN CONCERT WITH A 151715Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOULD IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH TYPHOON INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DIGGING TROUGH HAS ALSO WEAKENED THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, RIDGING TO THE EAST IN COMBINATION WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TS 12W TO MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHWARD. BY TAU 48, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AND ALLOW A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO BUILD POLEWARD OF TS 12W AND TURN THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE TOWARD TAIWAN. ALONG THE WAY, FANAPI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA. SINCE WARNING 04, THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS TAIWAN IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.