Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 15 Sep 2010 16:09:05 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 127.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 127.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 21.6N 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 22.2N 127.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 22.8N 127.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 23.2N 126.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.7N 124.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 24.0N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 25.5N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 127.5E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 325 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DEEP
CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE, YIELDING DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD OF T3.0. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE ABOVE FIXES IN CONCERT WITH A 151715Z
AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A DIGGING MID-LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOULD
IMPROVE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH TYPHOON
INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DIGGING TROUGH HAS ALSO
WEAKENED THE ENVIRONMENTAL STEERING FLOW, CAUSING THE SYSTEM TO SLOW
DOWN. OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, RIDGING TO THE EAST IN COMBINATION
WITH THE TROUGH WILL ENABLE TS 12W TO MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHWARD. BY
TAU 48, THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD PUSH EASTWARD AND ALLOW A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM TO BUILD
POLEWARD OF TS 12W AND TURN THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE TOWARD
TAIWAN. ALONG THE WAY, FANAPI IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO
MINIMAL TYPHOON STRENGTH AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE PERIPHERAL FLOW AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER CHINA. SINCE WARNING 04, THE
NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS HAVE SHIFTED MORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TOWARDS
TAIWAN IN RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE
OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 13 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.//

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