Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:06 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 128.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 128.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 22.0N 128.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 22.7N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 23.2N 127.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 23.6N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.6N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 26.0N 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 128.3E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH
OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
TS 12W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE
FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 160442Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS DEPICT CONVERGENCE OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH,
THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT
POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK
INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN JAPAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE 16/00Z 500 MB
ANALYSIS (AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SHOWS EVIDENCE THAT THE
RIDGE IS BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, MODEL
GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE ON INITIATING A TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN,
WEAKEN AND RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL
OVER MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND
170900Z.//

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