From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 16 16:31:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8G8VSBT007134 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:31:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8G50Bcs023157; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3420683 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:13 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8G8VD88006923 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8G8V627022272 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id BC4C9405001E; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009160006 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100916083106.BC4C9405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2010 03:31:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 007 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 160900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 21.5N 128.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 128.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 22.0N 128.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 22.7N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.2N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.6N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.0N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.6N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 21.6N 128.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TS 12W HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT IN A 160442Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE TRACK WINDS DEPICT CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, THEREFORE, THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. OVERALL, OUTFLOW IS GOOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE AMSU IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD TO EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK INTERACTION WITH THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN JAPAN BUT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN WESTWARD AS A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE 16/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS (AS WELL AS SATELLITE IMAGERY) SHOWS EVIDENCE THAT THE RIDGE IS BUILDING RAPIDLY INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. THEREFORE, MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS REASONABLE ON INITIATING A TURN IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS TAIWAN, WEAKEN AND RE-EMERGE IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT, AND THEN MAKE LANDFALL OVER MAINLAND CHINA NEAR TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.