Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:00:10 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 22.1N 128.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 128.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 22.6N 128.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 23.2N 126.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 23.5N 125.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.7N 123.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 23.9N 119.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.9N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.6N 113.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 128.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND STRONG
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED ONLY BY 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS (DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD OF
4.0 AND KNES OF 4.5) AS IT IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF RELATIVELY LOW
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE LATEST PGTW
FIX POSITION INDICATE THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
TY 12W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE RAPIDLY BUILDING OVER CHINA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARD ISHIGAKIJIMA, FANAPI WILL EXPERIENCE REDUCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
WHILE ALSO ENCOUNTERING AN AREA OF VERY HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,
ENABLING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS. THE
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.//

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