From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 17 05:38:30 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8GLcT5W013009 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 05:38:29 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8FBi7NT000852; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:38:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3433296 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:38:12 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8GLcCwe009160 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:38:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8GLbr2F029190 for ; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:38:00 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8EF22405001E; Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:37:53 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009160114 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100916213753.8EF22405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 16 Sep 2010 16:37:53 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 828 FXPQ60 PGUM 162137 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 737 AM CHST FRI SEP 17 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS. THIS IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BY THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE BETWEEN 8N AND 21N FROM 149E TO 170E. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS STILL THE DOMINANT FORCE BEHIND OUR RATHER LACKLUSTER WET SEASON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY AND STAY THROUGH MONDAY. AFTER THIS THE WEATHER WILL GET A BIT DRIER AGAIN. JUST TWEAKED THE FIRST PERIOD GRIDS TO GET MORE CLOUDS AND EXTEND THUNDER THROUGH THE ENTIRE ZONE GROUP. IT WAS THEN NO LONGER NECESSARY TO SPLIT THE ZONES. && .MARINE... IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THE BUOY TO FALL FARTHER FROM ITS CURRENT 23 INCHES. EVEN THOUGH SWELL WILL RISE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BENIGN. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL FROM TYPHOON FANAPI SOUTH OF OKINAWA. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL KEEP SOME SHOWERS OVER CHUUK THRU SATURDAY AFTERNOON...POHNPEI INTO THIS EVENING AND KOSRAE THRU THIS AFTERNOON. THEN DRIER TRADES ALREADY OVER MAJURO ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE FAIRER CONDITIONS WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. LATEST ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE-WIND SURGE APPROACHING THE DATE LINE BETWEEN 5N AND 15N. AN ITCZ HAS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SURGE...ORIENTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM 5N180 TO WELL SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ITCZ IS ALREADY FLARING UP NEAR 5N180. ANTICIPATE THIS CONVECTION TO SPREAD OVER MAJURO BY SATURDAY EVENING AND GRADUALLY EXTENDS WESTWARD DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. SIMULTANEOUSLY...BOTH WV SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LATEST YAP SOUNDING DATA INDICATE MUCH DRIER AIR AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS ADVECTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE EQUATOR. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL SUPPORT QUIET WEATHER FOR BOTH YAP AND PALAU THRU THE WEEKEND. WHEN TYPHOON FANAPI FINALLY PULLS FARTHER NORTH OF 20N BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. THIS SHOULD ALLOW GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO FILTER BACK OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. HOWEVER...TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADE-WIND FLOW MIGHT INTRODUCE MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.