From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 17 15:44:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8H7iXKS021101 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:44:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8H50Qbo023157; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3441548 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:13 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8H7iCp8000771 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8H7i6uk018900 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id ED68F405001E; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009170007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100917074405.ED68F405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 011 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 170900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 128.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 128.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 23.2N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 23.5N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 23.8N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.9N 121.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.5N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 26.1N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.7E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH AN IRREGULAR EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM OKINAWA (220 NM NORTH), THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEVELOPING EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN NEAR TAU 48. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THE 17/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND KICKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE LATEST SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS TAIWAN AND SHOULD MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH (55-60 KNOTS) UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.