Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 02:44:05 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 22.7N 128.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 128.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 23.2N 127.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 23.5N 125.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.8N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 23.9N 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.5N 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 26.1N 114.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 127.7E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 380 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH AN
IRREGULAR EYE DEVELOPING OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. BASED ON THE LATEST
IMAGERY AS WELL AS RADAR FIXES FROM OKINAWA (220 NM NORTH), THE
SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY TURNED NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE
IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE DEVELOPING
EYE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 75 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. TY 12W IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN NEAR TAU
48. AFTER RE-EMERGING OVER THE THE TAIWAN STRAIT, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD INTO CHINA AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU
96. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCEPTIONAL AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK. THE
17/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS TRACK WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FILLS AND KICKS NORTHEASTWARD. THE
LATEST SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATES INCREASING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID- TO UPPER LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS GOOD
OVERALL OUTFLOW WITH SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OF POLEWARD OUTFLOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 90 KNOTS IN
THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND SHOULD THEN WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASING
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION AFTER TAU 48. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS
TAIWAN AND SHOULD MAINTAIN TS STRENGTH (55-60 KNOTS) UNTIL MAKING
LANDFALL OVER CHINA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.//

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