From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 18 04:38:32 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8HKcVvN020457 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 04:38:32 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKE7XL023157; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:38:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3451228 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:38:08 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKc8Je012356 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:38:08 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKblSv015060 for ; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:37:54 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 550BF108B0001; Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:37:47 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=1 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009170141 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100917203747.550BF108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:37:47 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 217 FXPQ60 PGUM 172037 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 637 AM CHST SAT SEP 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS EAST OF THE MARIANAS...DISSIPATING AS THEY TRY TO MOVE INTO THE MARIANAS MARINE ZONES. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION EAST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 150E AND 160E. WINDS IN THE MARIANAS ARE LIGHT...NNE AT 5-10 KT. && .DISCUSSION... LATEST GFS/UKMET GIVE NO CLEAR SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE MARIANAS...AS A WEAK CIRCULATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON THE SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF THE MARIANAS MOVES NORTH AND TAKES MOST OF THE CONVECTION WITH IT. HAVE REMOVED SCATTERED SHOWERS SUN-MON IN FAVOR OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH LURKS WEST AND NW OF THE REGION. ISLAND THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ON GUAM THIS AFTERNOON IN LIGHT NNE WIND. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ASCAT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ITCZ MIGRATING WESTWARD AND REACHES MAJURO THIS MORNING. 200MB ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO EASTERN MICRONESIA FROM A LARGE TUTT CELL EAST OF WAKE ISLAND. FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GREATLY ENHANCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ AS IT IMPACTS MAJURO TODAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING...AND ALSO KOSRAE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF THE ITCZ IS GOING TO MAINTAIN SOME SHOWERS OVER POHNPEI INTO THIS EVENING...AND CHUUK INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THEN AN AREA OF DRIER TRADES AHEAD OF THE ITCZ WILL PROMOTE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IMPROVED WEATHER FOR POHNPEI ON SUNDAY...AND CHUUK ON MONDAY. AFTERWARD...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ WILL ALSO SPREAD OVER BOTH LOCATIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FINALLY...LIGHTER TRADE WINDS MIGHT CAUSE THE ITCZ TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA AROUND MIDWEEK. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... A PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA ALONG WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED TO PROVIDE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR YAP AND PALAU INTO SUNDAY. AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY NEAR CHUUK WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND ENCOURAGE SHOWER FORMATION OVER BOTH FORECAST POINTS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/CHAN +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.