Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 17 Sep 2010 15:38:08 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 23.3N 126.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 126.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 23.7N 125.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.9N 123.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.1N 121.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 24.2N 119.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 25.2N 115.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 26.2N 111.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 126.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A 15NM EYE AND A 171422Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW AND SOME POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON
AN EYE FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 90 KNOTS. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM MAY BE HINDERING DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS EVIDENT IN UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND AN
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FROM NAZE INDICATING MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO CONTINUED GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD. BY TAU 36, TY
FANAPI SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER MAKING LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. AFTER TAU
48, IT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 171800Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z
AND 182100Z.//

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