From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 18 15:56:17 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8I7uFCl011995 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:56:16 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKE7xB023157; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3457125 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:49 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I7tnpa019238 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I7tg3i011468 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id D4BD7108B0001; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:42 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180005 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100918075542.D4BD7108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:42 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 684 FXPQ60 PGUM 180755 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 555 PM CHST SAT SEP 18 2010 .SYNOPSIS... RADAR SHOWS DISSIPATING ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN GUAM MARINE ZONE...OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE TINIAN MARINE ZONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS PRODUCING CONVECTION EAST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 148E AND 160E. WINDS IN THE MARIANAS ARE LIGHT...NE AT 5-10 KT. && .DISCUSSION... THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWARD. ON SATELLITE THE CONVECTION AT PRESENT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE ENE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WEAK DISORGANIZED SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MODEL SOLUTION AND LEAVE THE PRIOR FORECAST UNCHANGED. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF KOSRAE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS ENHANCED THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR MAJURO TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO POHNPEI BY MONDAY AS THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE MIGRATES WESTWARD. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SIMILAR ACCOUNT FROM THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION WHERE A SURFACE RIDGE OVER PALAU AND YAP IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ DEVITA/MILLER +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.