Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 02:55:42 -0500

684 
FXPQ60 PGUM 180755
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
555 PM CHST SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS DISSIPATING ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SOUTHERN
GUAM MARINE ZONE...OTHERWISE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
TINIAN MARINE ZONE. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY WEST OF THE ISLANDS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
PRODUCING CONVECTION EAST OF THE MARIANAS BETWEEN 148E AND 160E.
WINDS IN THE MARIANAS ARE LIGHT...NE AT 5-10 KT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST GFS AND UKMET MODELS TRACK THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK
CIRCULATION AND THE ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTHWARD. ON
SATELLITE THE CONVECTION AT PRESENT APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE
ENE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS WEAK
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM...HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH THE MODEL SOLUTION
AND LEAVE THE PRIOR FORECAST UNCHANGED.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE
STRETCHES FROM JUST EAST OF KOSRAE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.
DIVERGENCE ALOFT HAS ENHANCED THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY FOR MAJURO TONIGHT. ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD WESTWARD TO POHNPEI BY MONDAY AS THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE
MIGRATES WESTWARD.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SIMILAR ACCOUNT FROM THIS MORNINGS DISCUSSION WHERE A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER PALAU AND YAP IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE FAIR WEATHER
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WEST OF CHUUK WILL MOVE
WESTWARD AND INCREASE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

DEVITA/MILLER

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