Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:04 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 125.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 125.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 24.0N 123.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.0N 121.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 23.8N 118.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.0N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 24.6N 112.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 25.1N 109.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN DEPICT A 10 NM EYE
WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN DEFINED EYE IN
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ON THE JAPAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES OF 90 TO 102
KNOTS AS WELL AS AN 180249Z PGUA VORTEX MESSAGE INDICATING SURFACE
WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 105 KNOTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON DOTSTAR DROPSONDE DATA AND 18/07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM
ISHIGAKIJIMA (75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 12W) INDICATING 44 KNOT
WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING TO 61 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 987 MB.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS THE
OUTFLOW ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL
TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK
INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//

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