From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 18 16:21:27 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8I8LQBs015068 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 16:21:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKE7xp023157; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3457345 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:11 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I8LBYV020765 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I8L4mA027463 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9215F108B0001; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100918082104.9215F108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 03:21:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 015 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 180900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 23.7N 125.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.7N 125.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 24.0N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 24.0N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.8N 118.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.0N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 24.6N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 25.1N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 124.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN DEPICT A 10 NM EYE WITH DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION AND A CONCENTRIC EYE WALL. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN DEFINED EYE IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ON THE JAPAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM RJTD, PGTW, AND KNES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN 180249Z PGUA VORTEX MESSAGE INDICATING SURFACE WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OF 105 KNOTS. WIND RADII ARE BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON DOTSTAR DROPSONDE DATA AND 18/07Z OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA (75 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TY 12W) INDICATING 44 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTH GUSTING TO 61 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE OF 987 MB. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS THE OUTFLOW ENHANCING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS ALSO REVEALS INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.