From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sat Sep 18 22:09:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8IE9dqL005423 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 22:09:40 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8HKE76n023157; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3459159 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:22 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8IE9M4V013009 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8IE9FLV009721 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 39A44405001E; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:15 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180052 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100918140915.39A44405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 09:09:15 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 12w Warning Nr 16// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 16// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181122Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 16 NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. A RADAR LOOP FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN AND ENHANCED IR IMAGERY INDICATE TY 12W IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON AN EYE FIX IN IR AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THEN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, RJTD, AND KNES WHICH RANGE FROM 90 TO 102 KNOTS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 KNOTS AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM IN IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM ISHIGAKIJIMA, JAPAN (30 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING 60 KNOT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL AS OBSERVATIONS FROM MIYAKOJIMA, JAPAN (75 NM NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM) INDICATING 35 KNOT WINDS GUSTING TO 53 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. B. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE COMPLETION OF AN EYE-WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL TAIWAN BETWEEN TAU 12 AND TAU 24. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.