From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 19 04:16:40 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8IKGc3V007403 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 04:16:39 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I512TE009078; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3461906 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:16 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8IKGFFh007153 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8IKG91P029064 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 11E24405001E; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 4 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=4 spamscore=4 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180103 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100918201609.11E24405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 017 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 182100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 123.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 123.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 23.9N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 23.9N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 24.0N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 24.3N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 24.7N 109.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 122.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181325Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 30NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON A 181318Z ASCAT PASS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. TY FANAPI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER CHINA, WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.