Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 017

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 15:16:08 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 24.0N 123.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 123.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 23.9N 120.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 23.9N 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 24.0N 115.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 24.3N 113.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 24.7N 109.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 122.5E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM SOUTHEAST OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181325Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A 30NM EYE WITH MULTIPLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN RADAR
FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN
THE WIND RADII STRUCTURE BASED ON A 181318Z ASCAT PASS. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. TY
FANAPI IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT
12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN
OVER CHINA, WEAKEN RAPIDLY, AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z.//

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