From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 19 10:26:57 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8J2QuTE003971 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 10:26:57 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I512bP009078; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3464727 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:24 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2QNDZ002782 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2QHlP023263 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 20DCA405001E; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:16 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180148 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919022617.20DCA405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:26:16 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 12w Warning Nr 18// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FILLED EYE AS TY 12W MAKES LANDFALL OVER TAIWAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX AND A TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 90 TO 115 KNOTS. ADDITIONALLY, OBSERVATIONS FROM HUALIEN, TAIWAN ARE INDICATING MEAN SURFACE LEVEL WINDS OF 45KTS WITH GUSTS OF 115 KNOTS, APPROXIMATELY 20NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT HINDERED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY 12W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK OVER TAIWAN. BY TAU 24, TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AGAIN OVER EASTERN CHINA AND DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.