From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 19 10:52:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8J2qPeZ004922 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 10:52:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2ZJVQ023157; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3465029 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:14 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2qDbb004981 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2q7Q3021742 for ; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3C0A8405001F; Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=4 adultscore=2 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009180156 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919025207.3C0A8405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.6E TO 15.8N 145.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 182332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION. A 182024Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS STILL DISORGANIZED. ALSO, A 190004Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAK LLCC WITH HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 200300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.