Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sat, 18 Sep 2010 21:52:07 -0500

WTPN22 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.9N 151.6E TO 15.8N 145.2E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 182332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.9N 151.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.0N
152.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2, APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST OF
GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED INFLOW
INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH INCREASED CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A 182024Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS
STILL DISORGANIZED. ALSO, A 190004Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS WEAK LLCC
WITH HIGHER GRADIENT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
BENEATH AN ANTICYCLONE ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTION, THE FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
200300Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.