Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 019

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 120.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 120.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 22.8N 118.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 22.9N 116.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.2N 113.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 23.5N 111.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 23.1N 109.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 120.3E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN INDICATE TY 12W HAS WEAKENED AND
TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN. A 190541Z 89
GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM THE
TAIWAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN INDICATING MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF TY 12W, HOWEVER POLEWARD
OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. TY12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN
CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE-
INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 24. TY 12W IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD OVER INLAND CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//

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