From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 19 16:26:20 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8J8QJcb024572 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 16:26:20 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J2ZJiu023157; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3467706 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:10 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J8QARV026780 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8J8Q37B021704 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:09 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 3232A108B0001; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=1 adultscore=25 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190007 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919082603.3232A108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 019 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 23.0N 120.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE AND RADAR PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 120.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 22.8N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 22.9N 116.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.2N 113.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.5N 111.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 23.1N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 120.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RADAR LOOP FROM TAIWAN INDICATE TY 12W HAS WEAKENED AND TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS OF TAIWAN. A 190541Z 89 GHZ AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONTINUED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON RADAR FIXES FROM THE TAIWAN RADAR LOOP. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBSERVATIONS FROM TAIWAN INDICATING MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING TROUGH TO THE EAST OF TY 12W, HOWEVER POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS SOMEWHAT RESTRICTED DUE TO AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TY12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RE- INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT RE-EMERGES IN THE TAIWAN STRAIGHT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 24. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER INLAND CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. 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