From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Sun Sep 19 22:39:39 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8JEdbo6013660 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:39:38 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8I512sg009078; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3471287 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:17 -0500 Received: from relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (relay08.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.9]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JEdGW4024286 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay08.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JEdAGF007808 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 062C3405001F; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:10 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190064 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919143910.062C3405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 09:39:10 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 12w Warning Nr 18// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 190300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 18// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A TAIWAN RADAR LOOP INDICATE TY 12W HAS RE-EMERGED OVER WATER IN THE TAIWAN STRAIT. THE AFOREMENTIONED RADAR LOOP AND IR IMAGERY AS WELL AS A 191100Z 91 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON THE SSMIS IMAGE AND A WEAKLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE IN THE RADAR LOOP. CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, AND RJTD OF 65 TO 70 KNOTS. OBSERVATIONS FROM KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN (40 NM SOUTH OF TY FINAPI'S TRACK) INDICATED MAX WINDS OF 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 60 KNOTS AT 19/06Z. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ENHANCED EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE EAST OF TY 12W. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE RESTRICTED BY AN ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CAUSING INCREASED NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RE- INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA NEAR TAU 12. TY 12W IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER INLAND CHINA AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.