Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:36 -0500

739 
FXPQ60 PGUM 192006
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
606 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W IS CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES NE OF SAIPAN
NEAR 17N148E...MOVING ROUGHLY NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 90W IS NE OF THE MARIANAS...BUT RADAR
SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
AROUND THE MARIANAS NEAR A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM 90W. SE OF
THE TROUGH...WINDS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS ARE FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDER TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT...AND LIKELY MUCH OF
TUESDAY AS WELL. BY TUES MORNING...90W SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF 20N
AND MOVING NORTH. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY
TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK FEATURING ISOLATED
SHOWERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALLS...NORTH OF KOSRAE AND EAST OF POHNPEI. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD AS SOUTHEAST 
FLOW PUSHES NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 10N. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP KOSRAE 
AND MAJURO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
CONTINUE AT POHNPEI JUST A LITTLE LONGER AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
KEEPS CONVECTION FOCUSED IN THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING NEAR AND NORTH OF CHUUK THE 
PAST 12 HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE 
EAST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS FLOWING INTO INVEST AREA 90W WILL 
GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY TRADES LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL 
PERSIST AT CHUUK POSSIBLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER 
EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA. DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND 
BETWEEN YAP AND PALAU ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH. NORTHEAST 
TO EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AS THE TROUGH 
AXIS PASSES. GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF 
BOTH LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT 
AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAY BE LIKELY BY FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL 
JUST STAY WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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