From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 04:07:08 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8JK77cK000414 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:07:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JJ4aX4023157; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:44 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3474715 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:43 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JK6hbw019453 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:43 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JK6aHu007146 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:43 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id DE084405001E; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:36 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190117 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919200636.DE084405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:06:36 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 739 FXPQ60 PGUM 192006 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 606 AM CHST MON SEP 20 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90W IS CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES NE OF SAIPAN NEAR 17N148E...MOVING ROUGHLY NORTHWEST. MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 90W IS NE OF THE MARIANAS...BUT RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE MARIANAS NEAR A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SW FROM 90W. SE OF THE TROUGH...WINDS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS ARE FROM THE SOUTH. && .DISCUSSION... GFS/UKMET AND ECMWF ALL SUGGEST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER TO PERSIST AT LEAST THRU TONIGHT...AND LIKELY MUCH OF TUESDAY AS WELL. BY TUES MORNING...90W SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF 20N AND MOVING NORTH. AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AND WED...WITH THE REST OF THE WEEK FEATURING ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL MARSHALLS...NORTH OF KOSRAE AND EAST OF POHNPEI. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE WESTWARD AS SOUTHEAST FLOW PUSHES NORTHWARD TO ABOUT 10N. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP KOSRAE AND MAJURO DRY FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE AT POHNPEI JUST A LITTLE LONGER AS TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE KEEPS CONVECTION FOCUSED IN THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING NEAR AND NORTH OF CHUUK THE PAST 12 HOURS BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST. LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS FLOWING INTO INVEST AREA 90W WILL GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY TRADES LATER TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST AT CHUUK POSSIBLY UNTIL WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM EASTERN MICRONESIA. DEEP CONVECTION IS FOUND BETWEEN YAP AND PALAU ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES. GFS INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF BOTH LOCATIONS BY TUESDAY. LONG-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS MAY BE LIKELY BY FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL JUST STAY WITH THE ISOLATED SHOWERS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.