Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 021

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 119.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 119.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 23.7N 116.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 23.8N 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 23.8N 112.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 118.4E.
TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF
KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191732Z PGTW SATELLITE
FIX AND A 191800Z TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T-NUMBER
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AND AN 1800Z WIND OBSERVATION
OF 65 KNOTS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP SAVANNAH EXPRESS. TY 12W HAS
INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CONVECTION
DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG ROTATION EVIDENT
ON A LOOP OF RECENT RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN. THE TYPHOON IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE
AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA, JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE
CYCLONE MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE
CYCLONE WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND
202100Z.//

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