From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 04:51:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8JKpP0q001649 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:51:25 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JJ4aZ4023157; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3475237 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JKpEQV023215 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JKp7dm002561 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9D7AF405001E; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190125 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100919205107.9D7AF405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 15:51:07 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 12w (fanapi) Warning Nr 021 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 12W (FANAPI) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 23.6N 119.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 119.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 23.7N 116.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 23.8N 114.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 23.8N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.6N 118.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM NORTHWEST OF KAOHSIUNG, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 191732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 191800Z TAIWAN RADAR FIX. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77 KNOTS AND AN 1800Z WIND OBSERVATION OF 65 KNOTS REPORTED BY THE NEARBY SHIP SAVANNAH EXPRESS. TY 12W HAS INTENSIFIED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH CONVECTION DEEPENING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND STRONG ROTATION EVIDENT ON A LOOP OF RECENT RADAR DATA FROM TAIWAN. THE TYPHOON IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, MAKING LANDFALL NEAR SHANTOU, CHINA, JUST PRIOR TO TAU 12. THE CYCLONE MAY STILL INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY PRIOR TO LANDFALL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF VERY GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE CYCLONE WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE TO BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.