From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 10:44:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8K2iXsu019406 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 10:44:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8JJ4aqd023157; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3478556 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:21 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K2iKeI016759 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K2iEkg009377 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id F22E8405001E; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:13 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190174 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100920024413.F22E8405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 21:44:13 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Subj/prognostic Reasoning For Typhoon 12w Warning Nr 22// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WDPN31 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 12W WARNING NR 22// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TYPHOON (TY) 12W (FANAPI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF HONG KONG, CHINA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 192332Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 192331Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWING A CLEAR CENTER FEATURE. THE INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. TY 12W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSIVE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND IS PRESENTLY MAKING LANDFALL BETWEEN SHANTOU AND XIAMEN, CHINA. INTERACTION WITH LAND HAS EXPOSED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHILE DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER WATER IN THE STRONG CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LLCC. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 12W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TRACKING OVER LAND IT WILL STEADILY DISSIPATE BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 24.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.