From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 11:14:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8K3EXeq021384 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 11:14:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K2lKF6009078; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3479058 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:16 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K3EFFf019360 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K3E906020153 for ; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0374D405001F; Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=5 adultscore=1 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009190178 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100920031409.0374D405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Sun, 19 Sep 2010 22:14:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/ To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN22 PGTW 200300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZSEP2010// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.7N 147.0E TO 21.3N 143.9E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 146.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 151.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 146.7E, APPROXIMATELY 175 NM NORTH- NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH EXTENSIVE DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL WESTERLIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) TO THE NORTH. THE LLCC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE TUTT SHIFTS NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REDUCING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED BY THE TROUGH AND IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BECAUSE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 210300Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.