From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 17:06:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8K96RXY008239 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 17:06:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K50FAQ028356; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3482983 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:15 -0500 Received: from relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (relay01.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.23]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K96FxU014132 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay01.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K968qg021836 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id C75F1405001E; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009200017 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100920090608.C75F1405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 04:06:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 200900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200251Z SEP 10// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 001 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 18.7N 146.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 146.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 20.0N 145.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 21.3N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 22.5N 143.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 11 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 24.5N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 28.6N 143.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 34.6N 149.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 39.4N 159.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 145.9E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS IMPROVED ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM WITH DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 200532Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 200335Z 36 GHZ AMSRE MICROWAVE PASS INDICATING CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN APPARENT LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 KNOTS. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH ENHANCED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY OVER THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS INCREASED POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELLS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE SYSTEM. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. TD 13W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, THEN BEGIN TURNING POLEWARD AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE NEAR TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 13W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND RECURVATURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES, HOWEVER, GFS WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SOONER AND TRACKS THE SYSTEM POLEWARD IN THE INITIAL TAUS. THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 201500Z, 202100Z, 210300Z AND 210900Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVMARFCSTCEN 200251Z SEP 10 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.