Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:06 -0500

WTPN21 PGTW 201000 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 107.4W TO 22.2N 109.7W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY
AT 200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N
107.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM
SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 200405Z AMSU IMAGE. A
200403Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A GOOD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IN
MICROWAVE AND ASCAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
211000Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER. MESSAGE WITH
MANOP HEADER WTPN21 PGTW 201000 IS NOT VALID FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN.
SEE MESSAGE WITH MANOP HEADER WTPN21 PHNC 20100 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.//

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