From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Mon Sep 20 18:36:46 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8KAajeq013311 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 18:36:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8K50FBm028356; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:25 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3483424 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:25 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KAaOVR018720 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KAaHPR026763 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 102E24050021; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 1 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=1 spamscore=1 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009200027 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: * Message-ID: <20100920103607.102E24050021@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 05:36:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Formation Of A Significant Tropical Cyclone Is Possible Within To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 201000 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6N 107.4W TO 22.2N 109.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.5E, APPROXIMATELY 155 NM SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA, MEXICO. RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION FLARING NEAR THE CENTER OF A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EVIDENT IN A 200405Z AMSU IMAGE. A 200403Z ASCAT PASS INDICATES 20 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE WELL DEFINED LLCC. THE DISTURBANCE LIES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A GOOD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IN MICROWAVE AND ASCAT AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 211000Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED MANOP HEADER. MESSAGE WITH MANOP HEADER WTPN21 PGTW 201000 IS NOT VALID FOR THE AREA OF CONCERN. SEE MESSAGE WITH MANOP HEADER WTPN21 PHNC 20100 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.