Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:14 -0500

943 
FXPQ60 PGUM 201934
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
534 AM CHST TUE SEP 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH TD 13W CENTERED UP NEAR 19N148E...GUAM AND ROTA ARE ALREADY
DRYING UP...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY. SHOWERS ARE
STILL PRESENT OVER TINIAN/SAIPAN...BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SAIPAN OVER THE LAST 4-5 HOURS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS 13W LIFTS SLOWLY NW TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
IMPROVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON MIGHT ALLOW ISLAND THUNDER OVER GUAM...BUT GFS SHOWS
DRYING IN THE MIDLEVELS AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF 13W AND RIDGING SETS UP AT THE SURFACE...AND THE SAME LOOKS TO BE
TRUE WED AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY
WITH EASTERLY TRADES RESUMING FRI/SAT.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ACROSS THE REGION ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVABLE ON SATELLITE AND 
ARE FOUND NORTH OF A LINE FROM POHNPEI TO MAJURO. GFS SEEMS TO 
INITIALIZE WITH SHOWERS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH NEAR POHNPEI BUT 
MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF POHNPEI 
AND KOSRAE THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH JUST CROSSING THE DATE LINE 
WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 
WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST LATER IN THE 
WEEK...AS SEEN IN LATEST GFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST 
BEYOND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SCALED BACK TO ISOLATED FOR 
FRIDAY. WAVEWATCH MODEL ALSO INDICATES INCREASING SURF AT MAJURO BY 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RELATION TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS FAR TO 
THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS. WITH AN EXPECTED 7 FOOT MAX 
COMBINED SEAS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESUMED ACROSS CHUUK WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE 
FILLING THE GAP BETWEEN THE MARIANAS AND CHUUK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
CURRENTLY FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF CHUUK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 
THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE SURFACE TROUGH 
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...OVER THE FAR 
NORTHERN MARIANAS...HAS PUSHED WEST OF YAP AND PALAU. CONVECTION HAS 
FOLLOWED LEAVING THE TWO LOCATIONS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. 
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL 
GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION DRIES OUT 
FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT

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