From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 21 03:34:41 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8KJYe84016898 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:34:41 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KITEHV028356; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:22 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3493596 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:21 -0500 Received: from relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (relay09.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.86]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KJYLw3022967 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:21 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay09.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KJYEFB026445 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 865B84050023; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:14 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009200112 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100920193414.865B84050023@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 14:34:14 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 943 FXPQ60 PGUM 201934 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 534 AM CHST TUE SEP 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WITH TD 13W CENTERED UP NEAR 19N148E...GUAM AND ROTA ARE ALREADY DRYING UP...WITH SHOWERS DECREASING FAIRLY QUICKLY. SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT OVER TINIAN/SAIPAN...BUT ONLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REPORTED AT SAIPAN OVER THE LAST 4-5 HOURS. && .DISCUSSION... AS 13W LIFTS SLOWLY NW TODAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS BY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON MIGHT ALLOW ISLAND THUNDER OVER GUAM...BUT GFS SHOWS DRYING IN THE MIDLEVELS AS SUBSIDENCE SETS IN AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF 13W AND RIDGING SETS UP AT THE SURFACE...AND THE SAME LOOKS TO BE TRUE WED AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY DRY WITH EASTERLY TRADES RESUMING FRI/SAT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... ACROSS THE REGION ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE OBSERVABLE ON SATELLITE AND ARE FOUND NORTH OF A LINE FROM POHNPEI TO MAJURO. GFS SEEMS TO INITIALIZE WITH SHOWERS JUST A TAD TOO FAR SOUTH NEAR POHNPEI BUT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS MOST PRECIPITATION REMAINING NORTH OF POHNPEI AND KOSRAE THROUGH THE WEEK. A TROUGH JUST CROSSING THE DATE LINE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHETHER OR NOT ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS FARTHER EAST LATER IN THE WEEK...AS SEEN IN LATEST GFS...SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST BEYOND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE JUST SCALED BACK TO ISOLATED FOR FRIDAY. WAVEWATCH MODEL ALSO INDICATES INCREASING SURF AT MAJURO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS IN RELATION TO STRONGER TRADE WINDS FAR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MARSHALLS. WITH AN EXPECTED 7 FOOT MAX COMBINED SEAS...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... EASTERLY FLOW HAS RESUMED ACROSS CHUUK WITH A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE FILLING THE GAP BETWEEN THE MARIANAS AND CHUUK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY FOUND NEAR AND EAST OF CHUUK...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W...OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS...HAS PUSHED WEST OF YAP AND PALAU. CONVECTION HAS FOLLOWED LEAVING THE TWO LOCATIONS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS NEARBY. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO EAST BY WEDNESDAY AS THE REGION DRIES OUT FOR A FEW DAYS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.