From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 21 05:04:26 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8KL4PQa022608 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 05:04:26 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KITEa9028356; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3496800 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:12 -0500 Received: from relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (relay10.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.10]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KL4CkV007832 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay10.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8KL45ob007465 for ; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 418A6108B0001; Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:05 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009200123 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100920210405.418A6108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Mon, 20 Sep 2010 16:04:05 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (thirteen) Warning Nr 003 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 202100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 201800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 145.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 145.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.8N 144.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.1N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 20.5N 142.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 21.0N 141.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 24.3N 140.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 19 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.0N 144.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 40.3N 152.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 202100Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 144.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE POSITION IS BASED ON A 201732Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX AND A 201546Z AMSR-E PASS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK T-NUMBER ESTIMATE OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TS 13W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GENERALLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 48 AS THE CURRENT STEERING REGIME PERSISTS. THEREAFTER, AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO MAKE A POLEWARD TURN. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND TAU 120, TS 13W WILL ACCELERATE POLEWARD AND UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36 AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REORIENTS AND EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO RELAX. AS THE SYSTEM TURNS POLEWARD BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72, VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ENABLE MORE RAPID DEVELOPMENT. DURING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN QUITE INTENSE, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH PROVIDE A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. THIS FORECAST LIES SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS IN ANTICIPATION OF A MORE MERIDIONAL STEERING FLOW PATTERN. ADDITIONALLY, AN EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT NECESSITATED INCREASING THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 95 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 201800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (FANAPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.