Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:28 -0500

543 
FXPQ60 PGUM 210745
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
545 PM CHST TUE SEP 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS
WATERS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN WATERS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W). AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 14N AND 19N FROM
130E TO 140E. TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES OF A LINE FROM 4N 141E TO 10N
170E...INCLUDING CHUUK AND POHNPEI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) REMAINS THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE
ROOM. AS IT SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...CONDITIONS WILL
ACCORDINGLY IMPROVE. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER MAKER APPARENT FOR
THE MARIANAS IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF WAKE
ISLAND. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NOT VERY ACTIVE...BUT WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED IN CASE THIS SHOULD CHANGE. GFS40 KEEPS THE SHEAR OVER
MALAKAS RATHER WEAK SO WE CAN EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES... REFER TO PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY WFO GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM OR JTWC WARNINGS UNDER
WMO HEADER WTPN32 PGTW.

&&

.MARINE...
HAD TO UPDATE SWELL GRIDS AS WE DID GET SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM
FORMER TYPHOON FANAPI WHICH WAS NEAR TAIWAN. THIS IS THE PEAK OF
THE EVENT AND IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A THIN BELT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED FOR TONIGHT ONLY IN POHNPEI
AS SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE BELT OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD. GFS HOLDS
SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING MAJURO AND WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS
SHOWERS MOVE WEST...THEY WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI.
WAVEWATCH REMAINS STEADY WITH INCREASING SEAS NEAR MAJURO
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN
NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A TROUGH NEAR YAP AND
PALAU ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS RIDGING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS BUILDS IN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. CHUUK SITS JUST NORTH OF THE BELT OF
SHOWERS MENTIONED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA. SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING
AND WILL PASS OVER CHUUK BY TOMORROW EVENING. GFS INDICATES
SHOWERY ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CHUUK FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT KEPT
THE FORECAST AT ISOLATED AFTER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/M. AYDLETT

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