From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 21 15:46:18 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8L7kHvl024336 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:46:18 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L2kNGd028356; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:37 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3504226 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:36 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L7jZDO027498 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:35 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L7jSX9006418 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:34 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 8C199405001F; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:28 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009210003 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100921074528.8C199405001F@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 02:45:28 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 543 FXPQ60 PGUM 210745 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 545 PM CHST TUE SEP 21 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W). AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CREATING SCATTERED SHOWERS BETWEEN 14N AND 19N FROM 130E TO 140E. TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 MILES OF A LINE FROM 4N 141E TO 10N 170E...INCLUDING CHUUK AND POHNPEI. && .DISCUSSION... TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) REMAINS THE 800 POUND GORILLA IN THE ROOM. AS IT SLOWLY PULLS AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS...CONDITIONS WILL ACCORDINGLY IMPROVE. THE ONLY OTHER WEATHER MAKER APPARENT FOR THE MARIANAS IS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY NOT VERY ACTIVE...BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE THIS SHOULD CHANGE. GFS40 KEEPS THE SHEAR OVER MALAKAS RATHER WEAK SO WE CAN EXPECT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES... REFER TO PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY WFO GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM OR JTWC WARNINGS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN32 PGTW. && .MARINE... HAD TO UPDATE SWELL GRIDS AS WE DID GET SIGNIFICANT SWELL FROM FORMER TYPHOON FANAPI WHICH WAS NEAR TAIWAN. THIS IS THE PEAK OF THE EVENT AND IT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... A THIN BELT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ADDED FOR TONIGHT ONLY IN POHNPEI AS SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE BELT OF SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD. GFS HOLDS SHOWERS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH IS APPROACHING MAJURO AND WILL BRING SHOWERS BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AS SHOWERS MOVE WEST...THEY WILL PASS NORTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. WAVEWATCH REMAINS STEADY WITH INCREASING SEAS NEAR MAJURO BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN NOT EXPECTED. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A TROUGH NEAR YAP AND PALAU ARE WELL TO THE NORTH AS RIDGING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS BUILDS IN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. CHUUK SITS JUST NORTH OF THE BELT OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA. SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING AND WILL PASS OVER CHUUK BY TOMORROW EVENING. GFS INDICATES SHOWERY ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER CHUUK FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT KEPT THE FORECAST AT ISOLATED AFTER THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TOMORROW. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.