From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 21 16:54:23 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8L8sM4N029580 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 16:54:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L2kNI3028356; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3504615 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:11 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L8sBkM001134 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L8s4Wb022230 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A5C87405001E; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009210009 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100921085404.A5C87405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (thirteen) Warning Nr 005 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 210900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 210600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.4N 144.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 18.7N 142.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.6N 141.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 20.8N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 25.4N 142.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 34.1N 146.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 43.8N 155.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID- LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.