Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (thirteen) Warning Nr 005

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 03:54:04 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (THIRTEEN) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   210600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 144.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 144.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 18.4N 144.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 18.7N 142.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 19.6N 141.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 20.8N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 25.4N 142.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 34.1N 146.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 43.8N 155.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 144.7E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (THIRTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE
TO THE NORTH. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210654Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING ALONG A CONVERGENT
BAND ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5
FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
THE DEVELOPED ANTICYCLONE ALOFT IS PROVIDING STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM IS ENHANCING THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TS 13W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
STARTS TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE, ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO ROUND
THE RIDGE AXIS BY TAU 72. AS TS 13W APPROACHES THE RIDGE AXIS, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER HIGH OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, REACHING MAXIMUM INTENSITY BY
TAU 72 DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. BY TAU 96, TS 13W WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TRANSITION
INTO A STRONG BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY THOUGH
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN CONSIDERATION OF THE
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z
AND 220900Z.//

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