From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Tue Sep 21 17:50:34 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8L9oX5E000511 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 17:50:34 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L2kNJN028356; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3504976 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:17 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L9oFfe004481 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:15 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8L9o894024480 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 530E3405001E; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:08 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009210019 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100921095008.530E3405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 04:50:08 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Ampn/ref A Is A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.// To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 211000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200530ZSEP2010// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 21.3N 109.2W TO 25.1N 111.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 109.3W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 107.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 109.3E, APPROXIMATELY 90 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF CABO SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. PREVIOUS MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 210434Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED A WELL- DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH VERY LITTLE CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER, RECENT ANIMATED INRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION, THOUGH IT IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. NEVERTHELESS, THE SYSTEM IS SITTING JUST EQUATORWARD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON A GOOD LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND INCREASING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 221000Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.