Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 007

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:46:13 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211800Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220600Z --- 20.3N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 21.4N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 23.1N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 24.6N 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 31.1N 143.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 40.4N 151.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 211629Z AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATE A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING. IMAGERY ALSO CONTINUES TO SHOW THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
IS DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE STORM'S CENTER. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45
KNOTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING SLOWLY DUE TO
NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND UPPER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OVER THE
NORTH QUADRANT. DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT THE
CURRENT RECURVE TRACK. TS 13W IS FORECAST TO TRACK UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE AND WILL RECURVE
AND ACCELERATE UNDER MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW NEAR TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 60 AND 72
DUE TO ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 211800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z
AND 222100Z.//

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