From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 22 04:48:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8LKmiOT013172 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 04:48:45 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8LITEJf028356; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:26 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3515403 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:25 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8LKmPW0013190 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:25 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8LKmJrg004209 for ; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:25 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id EC5BB108B0002; Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:18 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009210169 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100921204818.EC5BB108B0002@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Tue, 21 Sep 2010 15:48:18 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 841 FXPQ60 PGUM 212048 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 545 AM CHST WED SEP 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS CONTINUES DEVELOPING AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS. CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS (13W) BLANKET THE MARIANAS. RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS WATERS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST AND NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN WATERS. && .DISCUSSION... AMSR-E IMAGERY SHOWS THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF MALAKAS NEAR 19N143E. FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES... REFER TO PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY WFO GUAM UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM OR JTWC WARNINGS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN32 PGTW. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE ACTIVE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM. EXPECT THIS AREA TO REMAIN WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES FARTHER NORTHWEST..THE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD WILL THIN OUT AND GIVE WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING..WE MAY SEE SOME INTERIOR SHOWERS DEVELOP FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. && .MARINE... MAINTAINED THE SWELL GRIDS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT WHICH SHOW THE NORTHWEST SWELL RESULTING FROM TYPHOON FANAPI WHEN IT WAS NEAR TAIWAN. YESTERDAYS OBS PICKED UP ON THIS SWELL BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION AHEAD OF STRONGER EASTERLY TRADE WINDS APPROACHING THE MARSHALLS. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE AT MAJURO SINCE A WSW-ENE ORIENTED TROUGH JUST CROSSING THE DATE LINE WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS SUPPRESSED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND MAJURO THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR KOSRAE AND POHNPEI...MOST OF THE SHOWERS IN THE AREA WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GFS SEEMS TO BRING IN SOUTHEAST WINDS TO POHNPEI A BIT PREMATURELY COMPARED TO THE LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS SO HAVE KEPT WINDS FROM THE EAST. ALTIMETRY DATA SHOWS INCREASING SEAS NORTHEAST OF MAJURO IN ASSOCIATING WITH INCREASED TRADE WINDS...BUT THE WAVEWATCH MODEL FORECAST OF 6 TO 7 FT FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MAJURO. .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR CHUUK...BUT MODELS GUIDANCE AND DECREASED CONVECTION TO THE EAST SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS WILL BECOME ISOLATED BY TONIGHT. AFTERWARDS... DRY CONDITIONS AFFECTING MUCH OF EASTERN MICRONESIA WILL SPREAD TO CHUUK. SURFACE RIDGING FARTHER TO THE WEST...COURTESY OF TROPICAL STORM MALAKAS FAR TO THE NORTH...WILL KEEP YAP AND PALAU FAIRLY DRY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF YAP WILL EVENTUALLY ARRIVE A PALAU BY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS KEEP YAP NORTH OF MOST ACTIVITY WHILE PALAU CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. GFS BRINGS NORTHEAST WINDS TO YAP AND PALAU LATER TODAY AND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...BUT ASCAT DATA DOES NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT THAT...NOR DO ECMWF AND UKMET AGREE...SO HAVE LEFT WIND FORECASTS GENERALLY UNTOUCHED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MILLER/W. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.