From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 22 13:58:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8M5wBfL023910 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 13:58:11 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M2dXDx028356; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:50 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3524370 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:50 -0500 Received: from relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (relay07.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.73]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M5vn9S000629 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay07.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M5vhFC018155 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:49 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2B8764050022; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:43 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=1 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009210276 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100922055743.2B8764050022@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:43 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 752 FXPQ60 PGUM 220557 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 357 PM CHST WED SEP 22 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TS MALAKAS IS STILL VERY EVIDENT ON GUAM RADAR OUT TO THE NW OF THE ISLANDS...BUT ALL THE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE MARIANAS WATERS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE WELL EAST OF THE ISLANDS. && .DISCUSSION... NOW THAT MALAKAS IS EASING OUT OF THE REGION...WEATHER ACROSS THE MARIANAS WILL BE QUIET THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND GENTLE WINDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ISLAND SHOWERS OVER GUAM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...BUT GFS HAS SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON THAT. && .MARINE... THE NW SWELL IS DUE TO DIE OUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT WW3 IS BRINGING A NORTH SWELL DOWN FROM TS/TY MALAKAS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...ALL THAT IS CONTINGENT ON ON TS MALAKAS ACTUALLY BECOMING A TYPHOON IN LINE WITH THE MODEL...SO THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECAST CYCLES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE MARSHALLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERACTING WITH EASTERLIES NEAR 6N HAS DEVELOPED AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. SHOWERS ARE STRATIFYING AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MAJURO. KOSRAE AND POHNPEI WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSING NEAR POHNPEI THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS AGREE IN HOLDING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS WEEK. MAJURO BUOY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST. WAVEWATCH BUILDS THE SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 7 OR 8 FT BEFORE SUBSIDING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK HAS INCREASED TODAY AS THE RIDGE THAT HAS SUPPRESSED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MOVES WEST. SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING CLOSER TO YAP AND KOROR. FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY FOR BOTH LOCATIONS...BUT WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT CHUUK WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THURSDAY. GFS SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH PASSING TROUGHS THROUGH YAP AND KOROR WITH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. UKMET AND ECMWF KEEP THE FLOW AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE EAST. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.