Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 00:57:43 -0500

752 
FXPQ60 PGUM 220557
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
357 PM CHST WED SEP 22 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TS MALAKAS IS STILL VERY EVIDENT ON GUAM RADAR OUT TO THE NW OF
THE ISLANDS...BUT ALL THE RAIN HAS CLEARED OUT OF THE MARIANAS
WATERS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MAKE AN
APPEARANCE WELL EAST OF THE ISLANDS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOW THAT MALAKAS IS EASING OUT OF THE REGION...WEATHER ACROSS THE
MARIANAS WILL BE QUIET THE REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND GENTLE WINDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MIGHT BE ISLAND
SHOWERS OVER GUAM THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN LIGHT SOUTH WINDS...BUT
GFS HAS SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THAT WILL
LIKELY PUT A DAMPER ON THAT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NW SWELL IS DUE TO DIE OUT THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT WW3
IS BRINGING A NORTH SWELL DOWN FROM TS/TY MALAKAS BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...ALL
THAT IS CONTINGENT ON ON TS MALAKAS ACTUALLY BECOMING A TYPHOON IN
LINE WITH THE MODEL...SO THAT WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN FUTURE FORECAST
CYCLES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PASSING THROUGH THE 
MARSHALLS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW INTERACTING WITH EASTERLIES 
NEAR 6N HAS DEVELOPED AN ELONGATED TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE 
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO. SHOWERS ARE STRATIFYING AT THE MOMENT BUT 
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR MAJURO. KOSRAE AND
POHNPEI WILL REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS PASSING NEAR POHNPEI THURSDAY NIGHT. MOST MODELS
AGREE IN HOLDING SCATTERED SHOWERS NORTH OF KOSRAE THIS WEEK.
MAJURO BUOY SHOWS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SWELL FROM THE NORTHEAST.
WAVEWATCH BUILDS THE SWELL THROUGH FRIDAY UP TO 7 OR 8 FT BEFORE
SUBSIDING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BETWEEN YAP AND CHUUK HAS INCREASED TODAY AS 
THE RIDGE THAT HAS SUPPRESSED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MOVES WEST. 
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING CLOSER TO YAP AND KOROR. FORECAST FOR 
TONIGHT INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM PARTLY TO MOSTLY FOR BOTH 
LOCATIONS...BUT WILL KEEP SHOWERS ISOLATED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS AT 
CHUUK WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED
THURSDAY. GFS SEEMS A BIT AGGRESSIVE WITH PASSING TROUGHS THROUGH
YAP AND KOROR WITH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS. UKMET AND ECMWF
KEEP THE FLOW AT A MORE CONSERVATIVE EAST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT

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