From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Wed Sep 22 16:27:08 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8M8R7No004880 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:27:08 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M2dXGO028356; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3525318 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:11 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M8QA2A008923 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8M8Q4Ka008885 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id E97AD108B0001; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=4 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009220012 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100922082603.E97AD108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 009 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 220900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 20.4N 141.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.9N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.7N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.6N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 35.0N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 45.6N 157.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A PARTIALLY- EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL BEING DISPLACED EQUATORWARD FROM THE LLCC DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MALAKAS IS TRACKING STEADILY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS FROM RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ACCORDINGLY, TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 23/12Z AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. BY TAU 72, TS MALAKAS WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE ENCROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INCLUDING THE AREA OF RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.