Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 009

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 03:26:03 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   220600Z --- NEAR 19.5N 142.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 142.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 20.4N 141.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 21.9N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.7N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.6N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 35.0N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 45.6N 157.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 142.0E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED, SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL BEING DISPLACED
EQUATORWARD FROM THE LLCC DUE TO NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. MALAKAS IS TRACKING STEADILY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE, WHICH IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AS A DEEPENING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE YELLOW SEA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES AND RJTD AS WELL AS
FROM RECENT SATCON ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY BEING SUPPRESSED BY UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON ITS
NORTHERN FLANK, IT IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT,
WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ACCORDINGLY, TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY STEADILY OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS, REACHING TYPHOON STRENGTH BY 23/12Z AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH. THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL ALSO ACT TO WEAKEN THE
RIDGE, GIVING THE SYSTEM AN ALLEY TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
BY TAU 72, TS MALAKAS WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE ENCROACHING
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY TAU 96 THE SYSTEM WILL OCCLUDE AND COMPLETE
TRANSITION TO A STORM FORCE EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK INCLUDING THE AREA OF
RECURVATURE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 16 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//

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