From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 23 03:41:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8MJfQuT031178 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:41:27 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8MHAcKd028356; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3537739 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:53 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8MJeruH017094 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:53 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8MJek5P027316 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:52 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 810F2405001E; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:46 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009220173 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100922194046.810F2405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:46 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 108 FXPQ60 PGUM 221940 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 540 AM CHST THU SEP 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... TS MALAKAS NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS PREVAIL. && .DISCUSSION... THE HEAVY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MALAKAS REMAINS SOUTH OF ITS CENTER ROUGHLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN 16N AND 20N FROM 141E TO 144E. FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES...SEE WFO GUAM PUBLIC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM OR JTWC WARNINGS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPN32 PGTW. OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER THE MARIANAS BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS. EXPECT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME ISLAND SHOWERS OVER GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SUGGEST A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING IN AS MALAKAS MOVES NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY AND TRADE WINDS RETURN BY SATURDAY. && .MARINE... WW3 IS BRINGING A NORTH SWELL DOWN FROM MALAKAS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT THAT MAY REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ NEARING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD PROVIDE MAJURO WITH WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER POHNPEI AND REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SURFACE TROUGH AFFECTING THE MARSHALLS COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE KOSRAE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS AT MAJURO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH BUOY DATA SHOWING 6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...THE 7 FT SWELL IN WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE SHORT PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT POSE A HIGH SURF THREAT TO MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF PALAU WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE KOROR AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODELS KEEPING A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CLOSER TO YAP...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR CHUUK...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY TS MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HIGH SURF CONCERNS AT THESE LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MILLER/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.