Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:40:46 -0500

108 
FXPQ60 PGUM 221940
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
540 AM CHST THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
TS MALAKAS NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANAS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND ISOLATED 
SHOWERS PREVAIL. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE HEAVY CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MALAKAS REMAINS SOUTH OF ITS 
CENTER ROUGHLY IN THE AREA BETWEEN 16N AND 20N FROM 141E TO 144E. 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS AND UPDATES...SEE WFO GUAM PUBLIC ADVISORIES 
UNDER WMO HEADER WTPQ32 PGUM OR JTWC WARNINGS UNDER WMO HEADER 
WTPN32 PGTW. 

OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN OVER THE MARIANAS BUT NOT MUCH IN 
THE WAY OF SHOWERS. EXPECT UNEVENTFUL WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE 
WEEK. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING...THERE MAY BE SOME 
ISLAND SHOWERS OVER GUAM THIS AFTERNOON. GFS SUGGEST A SURFACE RIDGE 
BUILDING IN AS MALAKAS MOVES NORTHWARD BY FRIDAY AND TRADE WINDS 
RETURN BY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WW3 IS BRINGING A NORTH SWELL DOWN FROM MALAKAS BEGINNING SUNDAY 
NIGHT THAT MAY REACH 5 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT. 
&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EMBEDDED TROUGH WITHIN THE ITCZ NEARING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD PROVIDE 
MAJURO WITH WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER SOUTHEAST 
TRADE-WIND FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION HAS 
FLARED UP OVER POHNPEI AND REMAINS JUST TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE AND 
IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SURFACE TROUGH 
AFFECTING THE MARSHALLS COULD BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE KOSRAE 
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO POHNPEI OVER THE 
WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS AT MAJURO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH BUOY DATA 
SHOWING 6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...THE 7 FT SWELL IN WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO 
BE SHORT PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT POSE A HIGH SURF THREAT TO MAJURO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
SITUATED NORTH OF PALAU WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
KOROR AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODELS KEEPING A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE 
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CLOSER TO 
YAP...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR 
CHUUK...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 
FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE 
AREA. A NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY TS MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE 
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HIGH 
SURF CONCERNS AT THESE LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MILLER/WILLIAMS

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