Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 011

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:06 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 141.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 141.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230600Z --- 21.3N 140.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 23.2N 140.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.4N 141.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.6N 143.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 40.5N 151.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 50.0N 164.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE TIGHTLY
WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221613Z AMSU
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION,
WHICH IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFRARED AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW
INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS GOOD. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE YELLOW SEA, SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND TRACK EASTWARD.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TS MALAKAS TO TURN POLEWARD. TS
13W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INTERACT
WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48 AND
TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. TS 13W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO
THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
OF THE TROUGH, TS 13W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE
EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//

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