From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 23 05:08:31 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8ML8U67006487 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 05:08:31 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8MHAcXA028356; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:14 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3539790 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:14 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ML8D82028113 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8ML87j2028028 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 0B1A7405001E; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009220199 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100922210807.0B1A7405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 16:08:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 011 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 222100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 221800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 141.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 141.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 21.3N 140.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 23.2N 140.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.4N 141.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 24 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 30.6N 143.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 40.5N 151.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 33 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 50.0N 164.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 222100Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 140.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASED CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 221613Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION, WHICH IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED INFRARED AND AMSU IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND HINDERING POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST REMAINS GOOD. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. A MID-LATITUDE, UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE YELLOW SEA, SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND TRACK EASTWARD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND ALLOW TS MALAKAS TO TURN POLEWARD. TS 13W WILL ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO RECURVE INTO THE MID- LATITUDE WESTERLIES AROUND TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL START TO INTERACT WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48 AND TRANSITION INTO A FULLY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 72. TS 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE TROUGH, TS 13W SHOULD TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.