From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 23 10:02:28 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8N22RQg008431 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 10:02:28 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8MHAcup028356; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3543850 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:13 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N22Drk021917 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:13 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N226eU008772 for ; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:12 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 7790C405001E; Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:06 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=56 adultscore=14 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009220257 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100923020206.7790C405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Wed, 22 Sep 2010 21:02:06 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: Rmks/ To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN21 PGTW 230200 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED// REF/A/MSG/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/220151ZSEP2010// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.5N 156.0W TO 14.5N 162.0W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 222332Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 156.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 153.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 156.4W, APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF HILO. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION LOCATED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ALSO, A 230002Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS IMPROVED LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER LEVEL ANLAYSIS INDICATES A TROUGH IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AS WELL AS INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15 TO 20 KNOTS) WITH GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS GOOD. THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 240200Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.