From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 23 16:48:36 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8N8mZem007359 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:48:36 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N3LhBa028356; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:48:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3548301 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:48:02 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N8m2iq018404 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:48:02 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N8ltSC022791 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:48:01 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id A4749405001E; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:47:55 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009230017 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100923084755.A4749405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:47:55 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 585 FXPQ60 PGUM 230847 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 300 PM CHST THU SEP 23 2010 .SYNOPSIS... WITH TYPHOON MALAKAS WELL NW OF THE REGION...THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. && .DISCUSSION... WEATHER LOOKS QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH GENTLE SOUTH WINDS BACKING TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. AT THIS POINT...NO REAL WEATHER MAKERS ARE IN SIGHT. && .MARINE... NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY TY MALAKAS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND...PEAKING EARLY NEXT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH SURF EVENT YET...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MALAKAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... EMBEDDED TROUGH...WITHIN THE ITCZ...NEARING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD PROVIDE MAJURO WITH WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. CONVECTION HAS FLARED AROUND POHNPEI AND HAS MOVED OVER KOSRAE. A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS AFFECTING THE MARSHALLS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE KOSRAE AREA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO POHNPEI OVER THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS AT MAJURO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH BUOY DATA SHOWING 6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...THE 7 FT SWELL IN WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO BE SHORT PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT POSE A HIGH SURF THREAT TO MAJURO. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF PALAU AND YAP WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE KOROR AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODELS KEEPING A SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE CLOSER TO YAP...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR CHUUK...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY TYPHOON MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AT YAP AND KOROR...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HIGH SURF CONCERNS AT THESE LOCATIONS. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.