Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 03:47:55 -0500

585 
FXPQ60 PGUM 230847
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
300 PM CHST THU SEP 23 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
WITH TYPHOON MALAKAS WELL NW OF THE REGION...THE MARIANAS REMAIN
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEATHER LOOKS QUIET FOR A FEW DAYS...WITH GENTLE SOUTH WINDS
BACKING TO EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. AT
THIS POINT...NO REAL WEATHER MAKERS ARE IN SIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY TY MALAKAS STILL ON TRACK TO ARRIVE LATE
THIS WEEKEND...PEAKING EARLY NEXT. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A HIGH SURF
EVENT YET...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MALAKAS DEVELOPS AND MOVES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
EMBEDDED TROUGH...WITHIN THE ITCZ...NEARING THE MARSHALLS SHOULD 
PROVIDE MAJURO WITH WET CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE DRIER 
SOUTHEAST TRADE-WIND FLOW MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. 
CONVECTION HAS FLARED AROUND POHNPEI AND HAS MOVED OVER KOSRAE. A 
SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDED BY TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS AFFECTING THE 
MARSHALLS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE 
KOSRAE AREA FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TO POHNPEI OVER 
THE WEEKEND. WAVE HEIGHTS AT MAJURO CONTINUE TO RISE WITH BUOY DATA 
SHOWING 6 FT SEAS. HOWEVER...THE 7 FT SWELL IN WAVEWATCH APPEARS TO 
BE SHORT PERIOD AND SHOULD NOT POSE A HIGH SURF THREAT TO MAJURO.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENT FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
SITUATED NORTH OF PALAU AND YAP WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE KOROR AREA TONIGHT...WITH MODELS KEEPING A 
SIMILAR PATTERN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE 
SURFACE RIDGE CLOSER TO YAP...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND LIMITED SHOWER 
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS 
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. FOR CHUUK...MODELS INDICATE FAIRLY QUIET 
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE 
AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND POSSIBLY 
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA. A NORTH SWELL GENERATED BY 
TYPHOON MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AT YAP AND 
KOROR...BUT SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY HIGH SURF CONCERNS AT THESE 
LOCATIONS.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/DEVITA

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