Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 013

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:11 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 013
   DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   230600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 140.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 140.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 22.6N 140.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.1N 141.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.5N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 35.7N 146.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 45.3N 157.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
   NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
   ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
   NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 51.3N 169.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 140.9E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGES REVEAL THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
CURRENT POSITION BASED ON MSI AND A 230329Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SYSTEM DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING POLEWARD DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED
BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND DEVELOP INTO AN
INTENSE BAROCLINIC  LOW BY TAU 72, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDE FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT
MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT;
THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230060Z IS 23 FEET. WARNINGS AT 231500Z,
232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to [email-masked] with
"unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL
write to [email-masked]. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.