From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Thu Sep 23 17:01:12 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8N91BPR008682 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 17:01:12 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N3LhBc028356; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:20 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3548407 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:20 -0500 Received: from relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (relay02.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.4]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N90JQw019000 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay02.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8N90C93028410 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:19 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 99C76405001E; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:11 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009230020 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100923090011.99C76405001E@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 04:00:11 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Tropical Storm 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 013 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 013 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 13W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 20.5N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 22.6N 140.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.1N 141.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 23 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 30.5N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 35.7N 146.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 45.3N 157.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 24 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 51.3N 169.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 140.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER A TIGHTLY WRAPPED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). MULTIPLE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT POSITION BASED ON MSI AND A 230329Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 45 TO 65 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. TS 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD DUE TO A WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE NORTH AND INTENSIFY AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS ENHANCED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW. NEAR TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND DEVELOP INTO AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC LOW BY TAU 72, AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROVIDE FOR A STRONG BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230060Z IS 23 FEET. WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.