Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 015

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:04 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   240600Z --- 26.2N 141.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 31.0N 143.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 35.9N 146.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 40.7N 151.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 49.2N 163.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 141.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX
MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP
DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND
RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH
HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY
13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS
SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH.
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND
242100Z.//

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