From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 24 04:53:35 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8NKrYld006335 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 04:53:35 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NJGsAw028356; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3558858 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:17 -0500 Received: from relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (relay03.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.69]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NKrHb9017670 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:17 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay03.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NKrAjT020652 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:16 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 18C134050020; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:04 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009230184 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100923205304.18C134050020@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 15:53:04 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 015 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 232100 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231800Z --- NEAR 22.8N 140.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 140.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 26.2N 141.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 25 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 31.0N 143.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 28 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 35.9N 146.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 30 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 40.7N 151.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261800Z --- 49.2N 163.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 232100Z POSITION NEAR 23.7N 141.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTH OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231616Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A BANDING EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND RJTD FIX AS WELL AS AN ITOP VORTEX MESSAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE VORTEX MESSAGE, ITOP DROPSONDE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES DECREASED SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH HAS ALLOWED TY 13W TO INTENSIFY BY 10 KNOTS WITHIN THE PAST SIX HOURS. POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST HAS IMPROVED AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS POLEWARD OUTFLOW INCREASES INTO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BY TAU 24, TY 13W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. BY TAU 48, TY MALAKAS SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO AN INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THEREFORE, THIS FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240300Z, 240900Z, 241500Z AND 242100Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.