From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 24 05:15:23 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8NLFM4e007704 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 05:15:23 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NJGsDW028356; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3559186 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:11 -0500 Received: from relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (relay04.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.5]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NLFBUc019304 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:11 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay04.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NLF4S8023446 for ; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:10 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 2F0CB4050027; Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:03 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009230186 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100923211503.2F0CB4050027@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:15:03 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 758 FXPQ60 PGUM 232114 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 714 AM CHST FRI SEP 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MARIANAS TODAY KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. && .DISCUSSION... A SLIGHT CHANGE MADE TO FORECAST. RIDGE BUILDING OVER AREA TO THE SOUTH OF MALAKAS WILL ALLOW WINDS OVER THE MARIANAS TO SLACK OFF TODAY. THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS GENERATED BY MALAKAS...THAT HAD BEEN STREAMING OVER THE AREA THE LAST FEW DAYS...HAS DECREASED AS THE STORM MOVES NORTHWARD. THIS DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW MORE SUNLIGHT AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND THIS DAYTIME HEATING ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER GUAM AND ASSOCIATED COASTAL WATERS TODAY. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE JUST ENOUGH ON SATURDAY TO PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST TODAY BECOMING EAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. EAST TRADE- WINDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. && .MARINE... EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WW3 HAD A NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL THAT WAS GENERATED BY TYPHOON MALAKAS ARRIVING TODAY. WW3 KEPT THIS SWELL AT TWO FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS EXPECTED SWELL WOULD PRODUCE A SURF OF UP TO 3 FEET ON NORTH AND WEST FACING REEFS TODAY. ONE EARLY MORNING SURF OBSERVATION SHOWED SURF AT 5 TO 6 FEET ON THESE EXPOSURES. A HIGH TIDE OF 2 FEET IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THIS MAY BE BRIEFLY PUSHING UP THE SURF. WILL WATCH THIS AND HOPE FOR MORE SURF OBS TO CLARIFY THE SITUATION AS DAY SHIFT MAY HAVE TO BUMP UP SURF HEIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WW3 MODELS DID NOT HAVE GOOD WIND DATA AND HAVE UNDERESTIMATED THE SWELL PRODUCED BY MALAKAS. AT ANY RATE MALAKAS IS EXPECTED TO BE A TYPHOON BEFORE TRANSITIONING INTO A FAIRLY STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW. WINDS AROUND THE EXTRA- TROPICAL MALAKAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SWELLS TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. ALL THIS ADDS UP TO SURF OF AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FEET ON NORTH FACING REEFS TUESDAY. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN UNDER ESTIMATING THE SWELLS IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SURF MAY BRIEFLY BECOME HAZARDOUS BY MIDWEEK. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ CONTINUES WILL AFFECT MAJURO THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE BUT MAJURO AND POHNPEI WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO MAJOR FEATURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELL CONTINUES TO SUBSIDE ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WITH THE MAJURO BUOY SHOWING SLOWLY FALLING SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM YAP WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER YAP...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH AROUND KOROR. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND CONSISTENT MODEL RUNS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR. CHUUK SHOULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST OVER CHUUK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ ZIOBRO/WILLIAMS +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.