Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 017

From: SIU Weather Processor <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:16 -0500

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   240600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 141.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 141.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 30.7N 143.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 36.2N 146.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 45.7N 157.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 141.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM
SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 240304Z TRMM
37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH
ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 240532Z PGTW EYE
FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT THE HIGHER END
OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD, BASED ON AN OFF HOUR 240232Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY
13W AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING ALOFT. TY MALAKAS HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 13W IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 13W IS
EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH
BY TAU 48, AND SUSTAIN AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY; THEREFORE THIS
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z,
250300Z AND 250900Z.//

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