From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 24 16:05:45 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8O85hMV015188 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:05:44 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NJGslh028356; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:24 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3567884 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:24 -0500 Received: from relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (relay06.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.196.8]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8O85NmE001344 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay06.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8O85GLU011347 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:23 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 9EFE7108B0001; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:16 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009240013 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100924080516.9EFE7108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:05:16 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: SIU Weather Processor Subject: Pacific-NW: 1. Typhoon 13w (malakas) Warning Nr 017 To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list WTPN32 PGTW 240900 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 13W (MALAKAS) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 240600Z --- NEAR 26.2N 141.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 19 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 26.2N 141.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 30.7N 143.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 30 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 36.2N 146.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 31 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251800Z --- 41.3N 150.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 32 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 45.7N 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 240900Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 141.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 13W (MALAKAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 8 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 45 NM DIAMETER RAGGED EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. A 240304Z TRMM 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE WITH ENHANCED DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A 240532Z PGTW EYE FIX WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS AT THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, BASED ON AN OFF HOUR 240232Z PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 102 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DIGGING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF TY 13W AND STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICYCLONIC TURNING ALOFT. TY MALAKAS HAS ROUNDED THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TY 13W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BY TAU 12, DUE TO FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, BEFORE BEGINNING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TY 13W IS EXPECTED TO BE FULLY ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO THE NORTH BY TAU 48, AND SUSTAIN AS A STRONG EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW AS IT CONTINUES TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK PHILOSOPHY; THEREFORE THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND 250900Z.// +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. 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