From owner-wx-tropl@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Fri Sep 24 16:24:21 2010 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by cozumel.ust.hk (8.13.8/8.13.8) with ESMTP id o8O8OKoR016524 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 16:24:21 +0800 Received: from vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu [128.174.5.113]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8NJGslr028356; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:24:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: by LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU (LISTSERV-TCP/IP release 14.5) with spool id 3567927 for WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:24:06 -0500 Received: from relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (relay05.cites.uiuc.edu [128.174.4.40]) by vacuum.cso.uiuc.edu (8.14.2/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8O8O6to002068 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:24:06 -0500 (CDT) Received: from weather3.admin.niu.edu (weather3.admin.niu.edu [131.156.8.48]) by relay05.cites.uiuc.edu (8.14.4/8.14.2) with ESMTP id o8O8NxQt000460 for ; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:24:05 -0500 (CDT) Received: by weather3.admin.niu.edu (Postfix, from userid 501) id 40086108B0001; Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:23:59 -0500 (CDT) X-Spam-Score: 0 X-Spam-Details: rule=no-quarantine_notspam policy=no-quarantine score=0 spamscore=0 ipscore=0 phishscore=0 bulkscore=0 adultscore=0 classifier=spam adjust=0 reason=mlx engine=5.0.0-1005130000 definitions=main-1009240016 X-Spam-OrigSender: ldm@weather3.admin.niu.edu X-Spam-Bar: Message-ID: <20100924082359.40086108B0001@weather3.admin.niu.edu> Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:23:59 -0500 Reply-To: wxmaster@COX.NET Sender: WX-TROPL Tropical Storm and Hurricane WX products From: LDM Weather Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas To: WX-TROPL@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU Precedence: list 004 FXPQ60 PGUM 240823 AFDPQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 623 PM CHST FRI SEP 24 2010 .SYNOPSIS... PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A RATHER INACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 25N157E. A BAND OF TRADE- WIND CONVERGENCE RUNS THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS JUST NORTH OF MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. ELSEWHERE CONVERGENT FLOW INTO TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE MARIANAS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION BOTH TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS AND IN A LINE NEAR 14N TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS. && .DISCUSSION... MOST WEATHER FEATURES ARE MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME. THE FASTEST OF THESE IS TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS NOW NORTH OF 25N...THUS THE FINAL GUAM ADVISORY THIS SYSTEM. NEXT IS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WHICH HAS CEASED ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS. SIMILARLY...THE ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ CURRENTLY EAST OF CHUUK AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE NEAR 10N ALL THE WAY TO THE DATELINE IS ALSO DRIFTING NORTH AND NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. THIS MEANS...AS CONFIRMED IN THE AVAILABLE NWP MODELS...THAT NOT MUCH IS IN STORE FOR THE MARIANAS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS FOR GUAM ARE ALWAYS THE POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE THAT THEY MOSTLY RAN THEIR COURSE EARLIER TODAY...AND WITH A SLIGHT PICK UP OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...I DID NOT SEE IT PRACTICAL TO ADD ISLANDS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TYPHOON JUST TO OUR EAST...SO KEPT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM. && .EASTERN MICRONESIA... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENCE IS THE GENERAL RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE BUT MAJURO AND POHNPEI WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO AND POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO MAJOR FEATURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND GENERATED SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ANY FURTHER ACCORDING TO THE MAJURO BUOY AND THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS THE WW3 MODEL AND SO...EXPECT THE CURRENT COMBINED SEAS FOR MAJURO OF 6 TO 7 FT TO NOT GET ANY GREATER. && .WESTERN MICRONESIA... SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM YAP WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER YAP AND PALAU...WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AROUND KOROR. GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE LAST FEW DAYS AND CONSISTENCY OF THE NWP MODEL RUNS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR. CHUUK IS CLOSER TO THE ITCZ BUT AS THE CASE FOR POHNPEI...SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND ONLY A FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GU...NONE. MARIANAS WATERS...NONE. && $$ STANKO/DEVITA/EDSON +-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+ To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with "unsub wx-tropl" in the body of your message. For help with WX-TROPL write to cnovy@cox.net. For more information on tropical weather products, see the NHC Homepage at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov.