Subject: Western Pacific: Synoptic Discussion For The Marianas

From: LDM Weather <[email-masked]>
Date: Fri, 24 Sep 2010 03:23:59 -0500

004 
FXPQ60 PGUM 240823
AFDPQ 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
623 PM CHST FRI SEP 24 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA WSR-88D SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MARIANAS WATERS. A
RATHER INACTIVE UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 25N157E. A BAND OF TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE RUNS THROUGH THE MARSHALL ISLANDS JUST NORTH OF
MAJURO...KOSRAE AND POHNPEI. ELSEWHERE CONVERGENT FLOW INTO
TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS NOW WELL NORTH OF THE MARIANAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE CONVECTION BOTH TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS AND IN A
LINE NEAR 14N TO THE WEST OF THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOST WEATHER FEATURES ARE MOVING OR PROPAGATING NORTHWARD AT THIS
TIME. THE FASTEST OF THESE IS TYPHOON MALAKAS WHICH IS NOW NORTH
OF 25N...THUS THE FINAL GUAM ADVISORY THIS SYSTEM. NEXT IS THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MARIANAS WHICH HAS CEASED
ITS WESTWARD PROGRESS AND IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD AND AWAY FROM
THE ISLANDS. SIMILARLY...THE ACTIVITY IN THE ITCZ CURRENTLY EAST
OF CHUUK AND EXTENDING ALONG A LINE NEAR 10N ALL THE WAY TO THE
DATELINE IS ALSO DRIFTING NORTH AND NOT MAKING MUCH HEADWAY
TOWARDS THE MARIANAS. THIS MEANS...AS CONFIRMED IN THE AVAILABLE
NWP MODELS...THAT NOT MUCH IS IN STORE FOR THE MARIANAS DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISLAND EFFECT SHOWERS FOR GUAM ARE ALWAYS THE
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER I BELIEVE THAT THEY MOSTLY RAN THEIR COURSE
EARLIER TODAY...AND WITH A SLIGHT PICK UP OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO...I DID NOT SEE IT PRACTICAL TO ADD ISLANDS
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TYPHOON JUST TO OUR EAST...SO KEPT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MODELS INDICATE PERSISTENCE IS THE GENERAL 
RULE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH OF KOSRAE BUT MAJURO AND POHNPEI WILL
MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE SHORT PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PREVAILING
CONDITIONS FOR MAJURO AND POHNPEI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH NO MAJOR
FEATURE DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. NORTHEAST TRADE-WIND
GENERATED SWELL IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ANY FURTHER ACCORDING
TO THE MAJURO BUOY AND THE ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS THE WW3 MODEL AND
SO...EXPECT THE CURRENT COMBINED SEAS FOR MAJURO OF 6 TO 7 FT TO
NOT GET ANY GREATER.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM YAP WEST TO THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE 
ISLANDS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVER YAP AND PALAU...WITH
A FEW MORE SHOWERS FOR THE MORE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AROUND KOROR.
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OBSERVED OVER THIS AREA DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS AND CONSISTENCY OF THE NWP MODEL RUNS...EXPECT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR. CHUUK
IS CLOSER TO THE ITCZ BUT AS THE CASE FOR POHNPEI...SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTH OF MOST OF THE ACTIVITY. DRIER SOUTHEAST FLOW AND
ONLY A FEW TO ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST IN THIS REGION THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

STANKO/DEVITA/EDSON

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